Next UK Chancellor in 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026 at 65.0%.
65.0%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Updated · Volume $808.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 65.0% | — |
| Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 16.5% | -52.0 |
| Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 11.3% | — |
| Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 7.1% | — |
| Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 4.4% | — |
| Will there be no next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 0.9% | — |
| Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 0.4% | — |
| Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 0.3% | — |
| Will Louise Haigh be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 0.1% | — |
The top 5 outcomes account for 104.3% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 10 tracked outcomes and $808.9K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026, is priced at 65.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice