Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 0.1% to 100.0% — a 99.8-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Healey seen as 'safe pair of hands' as he is appointed chancellor — BBC Business
Next UK Chancellor in 2026: Market Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give Shabana Mahmood a 100.0% chance of becoming the next Chancellor of the Exchequer, making her the near-certain. The market will resolve by the end of 2026 if the Monarch appoints a new Chancellor.
100.0%
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Updated · Volume $1.5M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Louise Haigh be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will there be no next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Miatta Fahnbulleh be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | 0.0% | — |
Shabana Mahmood is the near-certain at 100.0%, while all other named candidates and the ‘another person’ option trade at much lower probabilities.
Context
Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 0.1% to 99.6% — a 99.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 92.5% to 66.5% — a 25.9-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 73.5% to 87.7% — a 14.2-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 76.5% to 86.0% — a 9.4-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Who is the frontrunner to be the UK's next chancellor? — BBC Business
Show earlier updates
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 28.2% to 87.8% — a 59.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Who is frontrunner to be the UK's next chancellor? — BBC Business
The implied probability for Shabana Mahmood has over the period tracked,. As of 63 d ago, it stands at 100.0%. The market resolves to the next individual officially appointed as Chancellor by the UK Monarch before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Interim or caretaker appointments are excluded. If no new Chancellor is appointed, or if Rachel Reeves is re-appointed, the market resolves to "No next Chancellor in 2026". The primary resolution source is official UK government information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The resolution deadline is Dec 31, 2026. Any formal appointment by the Monarch before that date would settle the market. Official announcements or credible reporting of an appointment would move the probability before that point.
FAQ
Who counts as the next Chancellor for this market?
The market looks for the next individual officially appointed as Chancellor by the UK Monarch after the market’s start. Interim or caretaker appointments are excluded.
What happens if no new Chancellor is appointed in 2026?
The market resolves to “No next Chancellor in 2026” if no such appointment is made, or if Rachel Reeves is re-appointed, by December 31, 2026.
What sources determine the outcome?
The primary source is official information from the Government of the United Kingdom, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if necessary.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice