Will Nicolás Maduro Be Released? Market Odds & Probability
The market prices a unlikely 7.0% probability that Nicolás Maduro leaves custody before Jan 31, 2026. The contract resolves to 'Yes' on any form of release—including house arrest or bond—but a simple prison transfer does not qualify.
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $2.7M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | 7.0% | 0.0 |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market overwhelmingly favors the scenario that Maduro remains in custody past the deadline, with a release trading as an outside chance.
Context
The probability of Maduro's release has settled at 7.0%. The price moved by 0.0 pts in the past day. A release counts if Maduro leaves state custody in any form—house arrest, parole, bond, or other conditional release—before 11:59 PM ET on Jan 31, 2026. Prison transfers, court appearances under guard, or temporary outings that keep him within the correctional system do not trigger a 'Yes' outcome. The market resolves on official information from government authorities or corrections departments; a consensus of credible reporting can also serve as the source. The only hard deadline is Jan 31, 2026; no interim events or partial triggers are built into the contract. Trading will likely react to new statements from Venezuelan authorities, international legal bodies, or credible journalism concerning Maduro's detention. The absence of scheduled milestones means moves are driven by discrete news rather than a countdown.
FAQ
What counts as a release from custody?
Any scenario where Nicolás Maduro leaves state custody—whether through house arrest, parole, bond, or any other conditional release—qualifies as a Yes outcome. Simply transferring him to another prison or allowing a supervised court appearance does not.
Does the market resolve before the deadline if he is released early?
Yes. If credible reports or official sources confirm a qualifying release at any point before 11:59 PM ET on Jan 31, 2026, the market will resolve to Yes immediately.
What happens if he is placed under house arrest?
House arrest constitutes a release from prison custody under the market’s rules and would cause the market to resolve to Yes, provided it occurs before the deadline.
Who verifies the outcome?
The primary source is official information from government or corrections authorities. If that is ambiguous or unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting from established news outlets will be used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice