UNRWA Nobel Peace Prize 2026: Current Odds & Prediction Market
Prediction markets assign UNRWA a 10.1% probability of receiving the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, pegging it as unlikely by the time the Norwegian Nobel Committee makes its announcement.
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Updated · Volume $22.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 10.1% | +0.1 |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 8.1% | +0.2 |
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 4.9% | +0.3 |
| Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 4.4% | +0.1 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 4.3% | 0.0 |
| Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 2.3% | +0.1 |
| Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1.5% | — |
| Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1.4% | — |
| Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1.4% | — |
| Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.3% | — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.3% | — |
UNRWA’s contract is unlikely at 10.1%, while the rest of the field—encompassing all other possible laureates—languishes at negligible levels. No single alternative has emerged with any significant market support.
Context
Markets tracking the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize focus on whether the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) will be named the laureate. At present, traders see this outcome as unlikely, with the contract trading at 10.1%. Volume has reached $22.4M. The market’s resolution mechanism is unusually structured to handle joint awards. If multiple listed individuals or entities share the prize, the contract resolves to the highest-ranked among a predefined hierarchy: Donald Trump first, then Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, and Elon Musk in that order. Should none of these five be among the laureates and the prize is shared by at least one listed individual and one listed organization, the contract favors the individual. When all recipients are of the same type—either all individuals or all organizations—the market settles on the name appearing first alphabetically as written on the market’s list. This set of tie‑breakers means that certain combinations of winners could redirect the outcome away from what a straightforward reading might suggest, adding a layer of complexity that traders must factor into their pricing. A fallback provision is in place: if the Norwegian Nobel Committee has not announced a winner by the market’s deadline, the contract resolves to “Other.” No other candidates carry enough probability to warrant individual tracking; the entire remaining field of potential recipients trades in negligible territory. That absence of a clear second favorite leaves UNRWA as the only name with any meaningful market‑implied chance, though even that chance is still described as unlikely. The prize is awarded by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, and the market uses the first official announcement as its resolution source. As with all prediction markets, the current price reflects the collective judgment of participants based on publicly available information, and it can change rapidly if news alters the perceived likelihood of UNRWA’s selection.
FAQ
How is the winner of this market determined?
The market resolves to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed entities win jointly, a series of tie-breaking rules is applied: first by a priority order among five named individuals, then by favoring individuals over organizations in mixed awards, and finally by alphabetical order if all recipients are of the same type.
What happens if the prize is awarded to someone not listed in the market?
The contract would resolve to “Other,” the catch-all outcome for any recipient not explicitly named among the market’s listed choices.
Is there a deadline for the announcement?
Yes. If the Norwegian Nobel Committee has not made an official announcement by the market’s specified deadline, the contract automatically settles as “Other.”
Does the market react to nominations or only the final award?
Only the final award matters. The market resolves solely on the first official announcement of the laureate; nominations or shortlists do not affect settlement.
Can joint winners affect the outcome even if UNRWA is among them?
Yes, due to the market’s specific precedence rules for joint awards. If UNRWA shares the prize with any of the five higher-priority individuals, the contract would settle in favor of that individual rather than UNRWA.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice