Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 9.7% — a 5.2-point move over the past day.
Nobel Peace Prize 2026: Yulia Navalnaya’s Chances
Prediction markets give Yulia Navalnaya a unlikely 8.0% chance of winning the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, placing her ahead of a field that includes Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
8.0%0.0 pts 24h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Updated · Volume $23.6M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 8.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 4.5% | -0.1 |
| Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 4.4% | +0.2 |
| Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 3.0% | +0.1 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 3.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1.8% | -0.1 |
| Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.7% | +0.1 |
| Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Yulia Navalnaya is the clear favorite among the named candidates, but even her chances are unlikely at 8.0%. The other contenders—a mix of individuals and organizations—barely register, with none trading above negligible levels.
Context
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 4.7% to 35.6% — a 30.9-point move over the past day.
Yulia Navalnaya, the Russian opposition figure, stands as the market’s top pick for next year’s Nobel Peace Prize. At 8.0%, however, her perceived likelihood remains unlikely — a reflection of both the notoriously unpredictable selection process and a long list of plausible candidates. Under the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s rules, the prize can go to individuals, organizations, or a combination. The committee’s deliberations are private, and the ultimate winner often surprises. For this market, resolution follows a strict hierarchy: if Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the contract settles to the highest‑ranked of those five in the exact order listed. Should none of those five win, but an individual and an organization share the prize, resolution favors the individual. And if all recipients are of the same type, it goes to the alphabetically first name — as listed on the market — unless the official announcement is missing by Oct 10, 2026, at which point the contract resolves to “Other.”
In that crowded landscape, Navalnaya still commands more attention than anyone else. Volumes of $23.6M suggest moderate but sustained interest, concentrated enough to make Navalnaya the clear but far‑from‑certain frontrunner.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities share the prize, a hierarchy applies: first, any among Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk (in that order); then, if an individual and an organization are both winners, the individual takes priority; and if all are of the same type, alphabetical order of the name listed on the market. If no official announcement is made by Oct 10, 2026, the market resolves to “Other.”
Who are the main contenders?
Yulia Navalnaya is the highest-profile candidate in this market, but the field also includes names like Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Benjamin Netanyahu, along with several organizations. However, none of those come close to Navalnaya’s level of market confidence.
What happens if the prize is shared?
A shared prize still leads to a single contract winner through the market’s tie‑break rules. The order of precedence gives priority to the five individuals named in the description, then to any individual over an organization, and finally to alphabetical order if needed.
What if there is no prize awarded?
If the Norwegian Nobel Committee makes no announcement by Oct 10, 2026, the market resolves to “Other.” This ensures the contract settles even if the prize is withheld or delayed beyond that point.
How current is this probability?
The figure reflects live market movement and was last updated 5 min ago.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice