Sep 17, 2026
Probability rose from 5.0% to 8.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Odds & Probability
Markets see it as unlikely, pricing the chance at 5.9%. For resolution, any line of Nord Stream 1 or 2 must deliver natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities by December 31, 2026.
5.9%+0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $163.4K
The 'Yes' outcome is unlikely at 5.9%; the market sees 'No' as the far more likely scenario.
Context
Sep 16, 2026
Probability rose from 2.7% to 7.8% — a 5.2-point move over the past day.
Sep 15, 2026
Probability rose from 2.6% to 7.8% — a 5.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 6.0% to 2.8% — a 3.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 3.9% to 6.1% — a 2.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 3.8% to 7.6% — a 3.9-point move over the past day.
The probability has settled at 5.9%. Over the tracked period, it has fluctuated between 2.6% and 11.3%. This market resolves to 'Yes' if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas in commercial quantities to Germany or any EU member state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Commercial quantities mean sustained, measurable flows intended for end-user distribution; test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic transfers do not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The key condition is whether a commercial gas flow commences before the deadline of Jan 1, 2027. The resolution hinges on the consensus of credible reporting confirming or denying such an event.
FAQ
What counts as a 'commercial quantity' of gas?
It means sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic transfers are explicitly excluded.
Which pipelines are included in the market?
Any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2. A delivery through any of those lines to Germany or any EU member state qualifies.
When is the final deadline for a delivery?
December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET).
How is the resolution determined?
The resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reporting, as stated in the market rules.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice