Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Odds & Probability

Markets see it as a long shot, pricing the chance at 2.6%. For resolution, any line of Nord Stream 1 or 2 must deliver natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities by December 31, 2026.

2.6%0.0 pts 24h

Updated · Volume $162.5K

1%5%9%13%Aug 10Aug 17Aug 25Sep 1Sep 9

The 'Yes' outcome is a long shot at 2.6%; the market sees 'No' as the far more likely scenario.

Context

Aug 27, 2026

Probability fell from 6.0% to 2.8% — a 3.3-point move over the past day.

Aug 26, 2026

Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.

Aug 25, 2026

Probability rose from 3.9% to 6.1% — a 2.2-point move over the past day.

Aug 25, 2026

Probability rose from 3.8% to 7.6% — a 3.9-point move over the past day.

The probability has settled at 2.6%. Over the tracked period, it has fluctuated between 2.5% and 11.3%. This market resolves to 'Yes' if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas in commercial quantities to Germany or any EU member state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Commercial quantities mean sustained, measurable flows intended for end-user distribution; test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic transfers do not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The key condition is whether a commercial gas flow commences before the deadline of Jan 1, 2027. The resolution hinges on the consensus of credible reporting confirming or denying such an event.

FAQ

What counts as a 'commercial quantity' of gas?

It means sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic transfers are explicitly excluded.

Which pipelines are included in the market?

Any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2. A delivery through any of those lines to Germany or any EU member state qualifies.

When is the final deadline for a delivery?

December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET).

How is the resolution determined?

The resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reporting, as stated in the market rules.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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