Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Odds & Probability
Markets currently price the chance that 'Nothing Ever Happens: 2026' resolves to Yes at 82.5%, making it strongly favored ahead of the deadline.
82.5%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $795.5K
The 'Yes' outcome is the clear favorite, while the many 'No' scenarios—each tied to a specific disruptive event—are collectively long shots.
Context
Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 82.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 77.5% to 81.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 16, 2026
Probability fell from 82.5% to 73.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
The odds for a 'Yes' resolution currently sit at 82.5%. Since launch, the probability has swung from 79.5% to 88.0%. It edged up by 0.0 pts in the past 24 hours. The market settles to Yes unless at least one of the specified disruptive events occurs before December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. The trigger list includes political upheavals (a change in the US presidency or Chinese leadership), military conflicts (a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a US invasion of Iran, or a Russian attack on a NATO country), regime change in Iran, extreme Bitcoin prices, the confirmed survival of Jeffrey Epstein, and large-scale natural disasters (a major earthquake, volcanic eruption, or meteor strike). The full conditions are set out in the official market rules. The resolution deadline is Dec 31, 2026. No interim data point settles the contract—only the formal occurrence of a trigger event by the cutoff matters. The market’s published rules provide the authoritative source for each condition.
FAQ
How does the market resolve?
It resolves to Yes if none of the trigger events occur by the deadline; otherwise to No.
What qualifies as a major earthquake?
A magnitude 9.0 or above, as detailed in the rules.
Can the market resolve early?
Yes, if a trigger event clearly occurs, the market can resolve to No before the deadline, based on the available information.
Who decides if a US invasion of Iran has happened?
Polymarket will use the criteria in the market description and may rely on credible public sources to make the determination.
Is there a minimum number of events that must happen for a No resolution?
No, any single event from the list is sufficient.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice