Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 62.0% to 53.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026: Live Probability
Markets price the chance of an OpenAI IPO by the end of 2026 at 56.0%, close to a coin flip.
56.0%0.0 pts 24h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027?
Updated · Volume $3.0M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027? | 56.0% | 0.0 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by March 31 2027? | 28.5% | -5.0 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | 5.0% | +0.2 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2025? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market’s focus is on whether an IPO occurs by December 31, 2026; contracts for other dates are all long shots.
Context
Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 55.0% to 62.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: OpenAI IPO won't happen this year, says Sam Altman — CoinDesk
Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 65.0% to 51.5% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: OKX brings OpenAI and Anthropic bets to Europe as pre-IPO trading grows — CoinDesk
Sep 10, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 51.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 45.0% to 58.5% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 7, 2026
Probability fell from 62.5% to 54.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 48.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 27.5% to 51.0% — a 23.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 44.0% to 57.0% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 49.0% to 59.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
The headline contract currently stands at 56.0%. Its price over the observed period has ranged from 41.0% to 65.0%. The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI completes an initial public offering on or before December 31, 2026, Eastern Time, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. The IPO must be the first sale of stock to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, the market resolves to No. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Resolution draws on a consensus of credible reporting. The probability can adjust as new reports surface about steps toward an IPO, such as regulatory filings or confirmed plans. The key deadline is Dec 31, 2026. Because the resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, the market reacts to concrete developments that credibly signal an IPO is drawing near or facing delays.
FAQ
What exactly counts as an IPO for this market?
It means the first sale of stock by OpenAI to the public on any recognized stock exchange, confirmed by official announcements and credible news.
What if OpenAI goes public via a SPAC or direct listing?
Those would be treated as an IPO if they represent the first public sale of stock on a recognized exchange, provided credible sources confirm it.
How is the resolution date determined?
The market uses December 31, 2026, as the cutoff; any IPO must occur on or before that date, Eastern Time.
Who decides the final outcome?
Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, not a single source, to ensure reliability.
What happens if OpenAI is acquired by a public company?
The market resolves to No, since it would not be OpenAI’s own IPO.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice