Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets give a unlikely chance—17.0%—that Pedro Sánchez exits as Spain's prime minister before 2027. The contract covers any removal lasting any length of time from December 2, 2025 through Dec 3, 2025.

17.0%+2.0 pts 24h

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?

Updated · Volume $576.9K

10%14%20%25%Aug 23Aug 30Sep 7Sep 14Sep 22
OutcomeProbability24h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?17.0%+2.0
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?0.0%0.0

The Yes contract at 17.0% represents a unlikely view, while all other scenarios are long shots.

Context

Sep 6, 2026

Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 5, 2026

Probability fell from 21.5% to 19.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 4, 2026

Probability rose from 16.0% to 21.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 3, 2026

Probability rose from 14.0% to 21.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.

Aug 2, 2026

Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.

Show earlier updates

Jul 30, 2026

Probability fell from 21.5% to 18.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.

The contract currently trades at 17.0%, having moved between 11.5% and 22.5% over the period. For a Yes resolution, Sánchez must lose his post at any point from December 2, 2025 through Dec 3, 2025 ET, whether by resignation, dismissal, detention, disqualification, or any circumstance that prevents him from carrying out his duties. Even a brief loss of power triggers the contract. The primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting. The number responds to events that alter the likelihood of Sánchez being removed during the window. The contract's active dates are fixed: December 2, 2025 to Dec 3, 2025. Any development up to Dec 3, 2025 could cause resolution, with the outcome settled by the consensus of credible reports.

FAQ

When does this market resolve?

It resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez is removed from power at any time from December 2, 2025 through the listed end date. Otherwise, it resolves to No after the end date.

What actions count as removal?

Resignation, dismissal, detention, disqualification, or anything that prevents him from fulfilling his duties as prime minister, even temporarily.

How is the resolution determined?

Based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Does a temporary loss of power trigger a Yes outcome?

Yes, any removal for any length of time qualifies.

What happens if he leaves office after the end date?

That would not cause a Yes resolution; the market only considers events during the specified window.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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