Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a unlikely chance—14.0%—that Pedro Sánchez exits as Spain's prime minister before 2027. The contract covers any removal lasting any length of time from December 2, 2025 through Jan 1, 2027.
14.0%-1.0 pts 24h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $575.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | 14.0% | -1.0 |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Yes contract at 14.0% represents a unlikely view, while all other scenarios are long shots.
Context
Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 19.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 16.0% to 21.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 14.0% to 21.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 18.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
The contract currently trades at 14.0%, having moved between 11.5% and 22.5% over the period. For a Yes resolution, Sánchez must lose his post at any point from December 2, 2025 through Jan 1, 2027 ET, whether by resignation, dismissal, detention, disqualification, or any circumstance that prevents him from carrying out his duties. Even a brief loss of power triggers the contract. The primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting. The number responds to events that alter the likelihood of Sánchez being removed during the window. The contract's active dates are fixed: December 2, 2025 to Jan 1, 2027. Any development up to Jan 1, 2027 could cause resolution, with the outcome settled by the consensus of credible reports.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
It resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez is removed from power at any time from December 2, 2025 through the listed end date. Otherwise, it resolves to No after the end date.
What actions count as removal?
Resignation, dismissal, detention, disqualification, or anything that prevents him from fulfilling his duties as prime minister, even temporarily.
How is the resolution determined?
Based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Does a temporary loss of power trigger a Yes outcome?
Yes, any removal for any length of time qualifies.
What happens if he leaves office after the end date?
That would not cause a Yes resolution; the market only considers events during the specified window.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice