Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 22.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Pete Hegseth’s Pentagon: A list of controversies that define his tenure — Al Jazeera
Pete Hegseth out as Defense Secretary: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets see a 20.5% chance that Pete Hegseth steps down as Secretary of Defense before the year is out — a substantial minority view. The contract triggers on any departure, even temporary, and settles on the announcement rather than the effective date.
20.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $416.5K
The market is binary: Hegseth’s exit is seen as a substantial minority view, while the remaining probability reflects the scenario in which he stays in the role.
Context
Aug 9, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 22.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 23.0% to 18.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 22.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 6, 2026
Probability rose from 17.0% to 28.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Why are US Republicans losing faith in War Secretary Pete Hegseth? — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Aug 1, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 18.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 21.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth goes to the Hill with $350B funding request — NPR News
The market has assigned a probability of 20.5% to Hegseth leaving his post, placing it in the a substantial minority view category. Its price has ranged from 19.5% to 28.5% over the period. It has shifted -1.0 pts in the last day
The contract resolves to Yes the moment Hegseth ceases to be Secretary for any duration. An official announcement of resignation or removal triggers immediate settlement, even if the departure takes effect later. Resolution sources include statements from Hegseth or the U.S. government, though a consensus of credible reporting can also be used. The only formal deadline is Dec 31, 2026. The market settles when a qualifying source confirms his exit. No other scheduled events or conditions are specified in the rules.
FAQ
What events trigger a Yes resolution?
Any scenario where Pete Hegseth leaves the Secretary of Defense role, for any reason and for any length of time, before the end of the year.
How is the resolution determined?
By official announcements from Hegseth or the U.S. government. If those are unclear, a consensus of credible reporting is used.
Does the departure need to be permanent?
No. Even a temporary absence, such as a suspension or an interim replacement, would resolve the market to Yes.
When does the market settle?
It settles immediately after an announcement is made, not when the departure actually takes effect.
What if he resigns but the resignation is not accepted?
The market resolves on the act of ceasing to be Secretary; if he resigns and is no longer in the position, that qualifies.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice