Putin Out as President of Russia by June 2027: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance that Vladimir Putin leaves the Russian presidency before July 2027 at 14.5%, an unlikely according to current trading.
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
Updated · Volume $22.2M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | 14.5% | +2.0 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 6.5% | -1.0 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | 1.8% | +0.1 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome—Putin leaving office by mid-2027—is the only one with meaningful activity; the remaining scenarios are all long shots with negligible volume.
Context
Trading has kept the headline probability in a low, narrow range, reflecting an unlikely. It has fluctuated between 11.5% and 16.5% over the period. The contract has rarely stirred, with only muted interest indicated by $22.2M in total volume. The market resolves to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period from market creation through Jul 1, 2027. An announcement of resignation or removal before the end date immediately settles the market to “Yes,” no matter when the change takes effect. The same applies if he is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the presidency. Resolution rests on official information from Putin and the Russian government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. What alters the odds is any formal signal of Putin’s departure. An official resignation, detention, or incapacitation before Jul 1, 2027 would trigger immediate resolution. Absent that, the contract runs to its end date without a payoff. The sole resolution sources are official statements and, if needed, a consensus of credible reporting.
FAQ
What constitutes Putin ceasing to be President for this market?
Any period of time between market creation and the end date where Putin is not President, including resignation, removal, detention, or permanent incapacitation.
Does the market wait for the resignation to take effect?
No. An announcement of resignation or removal before the end date resolves the market to “Yes” immediately, regardless of when the change becomes official.
Who decides the resolution?
The primary sources are official information from Vladimir Putin and the Russian government, but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What if there is a dispute or conflicting reports?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting if official information is ambiguous.
Is a temporary leave or illness counted?
Only if it permanently prevents Putin from fulfilling his duties, or if he is effectively removed for any period.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice