Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 94.7% to 96.0% — a 1.3-point move over the past day.
Richest Person on Dec 31, 2026: Odds & Probability
Markets give Elon Musk a 97.0% probability of being the richest person on December 31, 2026—a level they treat as near-certain. The near-unanimous pricing leaves little room for any other outcome.
97.0%+0.1 pts 24h
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?
Updated · Volume $1.9M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? | 97.0% | +0.1 |
| Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31? | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? | 0.4% | -0.0 |
| Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31? | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Will Michael Dell be richest person on December 31? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Person F be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person D be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person M be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person O be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person L be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person G be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person P be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person Z be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person C be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person I be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person R be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another individual be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person T be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person J be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person K be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person H be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person Q be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person S be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person U be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person Y be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person V be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person W be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person X be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person N be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person E be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Person B be richest person on December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market views an Elon Musk win as near-certain; the remaining scenarios are all treated as extreme long shots.
Context
Jul 31, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 94.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability fell from 96.5% to 94.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability fell from 96.4% to 94.0% — a 2.4-point move over the past day.
The market’s confidence in Musk has held a high plateau, with the contract currently at 97.0%. The contract resolves to the name atop the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, at 5:30 PM ET. If Bloomberg fails to publish by 11:59 PM ET that day, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List steps in as the source. A further fallback uses the most recent Bloomberg snapshot if neither source provides data by January 2, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Because the payoff rests on a single indexed snapshot, any event that shifts the wealth hierarchy before that moment is capable of moving the odds. The exact deadline is 5:30 PM ET on Jan 3, 2027. The market makes no provision for information that arrives afterward.
FAQ
What determines the richest person on that date?
The market uses the Bloomberg Billionaires Index as the primary source, capturing the ranking at exactly 5:30 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
What happens if Bloomberg doesn't update the index that day?
The Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List becomes the fallback, checked at 11:59 PM ET. If neither provides data by January 2, 2027, the latest available Bloomberg data point settles the contract.
Does anyone have a credible chance besides Elon Musk?
The market attributes only a negligible probability to all other billionaires combined, viewing them as long shots.
When is the final outcome determined?
The resolution occurs promptly after the specified time on Jan 3, 2027, using the published rankings. Delays are possible only if Bloomberg's data is missing, triggering the backup sources.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice