Russia Coup Attempt 2026: Live Probability & Odds
Prediction markets price the chance of a coup attempt in Russia in 2026 at 5.5%.
Updated · Volume $131.4K
The 'No' outcome dominates, with a coup attempt seen as unlikely.
Context
The probability has stayed low throughout the market's life, sitting at 5.5% most recently. The market resolves to 'Yes' if a widely reported coup attempt occurs by the market's deadline. The exact cut-off is Jan 1, 2027. A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow or seize control of the Russian government. Foiled plots that are stopped before execution do not count, even if the Russian government announces arrests. For a 'Yes' resolution, credible independent sources must widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. The resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. Credible independent reporting of an attempt that fits the definition would be the primary driver of a 'Yes' outcome. As the deadline nears, time decay pushes the probability toward zero unless such an event materializes. The deadline is Jan 1, 2027.
FAQ
What qualifies as a coup attempt under this market's rules?
A coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government. Revolutionary actions by non-state groups, isolated protests, or general unrest are not enough.
Do foiled plots count if they are uncovered before being carried out?
No. The market requires an actual attempt at execution. Arrests or disruptions of a planned operation that never takes place do not lead to a 'Yes' resolution.
How does the market treat announcements by the Russian government about foiled coups?
Such claims only count if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly call it a coup attempt. Without that independent verification, they do not trigger a 'Yes'.
What is the resolution source for this market?
Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. There is no single official body; the market relies on widely accepted journalistic accounts.
Is there a deadline for the event to occur?
The market has a specific deadline. It is Jan 1, 2027. Any coup attempt must be widely reported by that time for a 'Yes' resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice