Sep 19, 2026
Probability rose from 41.5% to 65.5% — a 24.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: The view from Russia: ‘No party can be antiwar’ in parliamentary election — Al Jazeera
Russian Duma 2026: Third-Place Party Odds
Prediction markets have settled Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election at 99.5%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary electionEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $255.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 99.5% | +13.5 |
| Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 1.4% | -9.6 |
| Will Party O win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Yabloko win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| Will Party G win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party U win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party X win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party V win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Rodina win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| Will Party I win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party F win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party W win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will United Russia (ER) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| Will Other win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party R win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party E win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party K win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party P win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Y win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party T win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party B win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Q win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party M win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| Will Party J win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Z win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party H win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party L win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party D win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party C win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party S win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Civic Platform (GP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| Will Party N win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Context
Sep 19, 2026
Probability rose from 31.0% to 51.5% — a 20.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Russia’s parliamentary election: Who’s on the ballot, and why it matters — Al Jazeera
Sep 18, 2026
Probability fell from 62.0% to 51.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Russia’s parliamentary election: Who’s on the ballot, and why it matters — Al Jazeera
Sep 17, 2026
Probability rose from 56.0% to 62.0% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 46.0% to 56.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 38.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 38.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 32.5% to 42.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 38.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 41.5% to 37.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice