Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 46.0% to 56.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Russian Duma 2026: Third-Place Party Odds
Markets price New People at 56.0% to capture the third-highest seat tally in Russia’s September 2026 State Duma election. The outlook is close to a coin flip.
56.0%+0.5 pts 24h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Updated · Volume $77.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 56.0% | +0.5 |
| Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 34.0% | -1.5 |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 7.5% | -0.5 |
| Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 2.9% | +0.4 |
| Will Yabloko win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Rodina win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Will United Russia (ER) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Civic Platform (GP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Party I win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party F win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party W win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Other win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party C win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party R win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party E win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party K win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party P win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Y win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party T win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party B win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party D win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Q win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party M win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party J win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Z win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party S win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party H win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party L win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party N win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party O win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party G win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party U win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party X win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party V win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
LDPR stands at 34.0% (a substantial minority view), while KPRF registers 7.5% (unlikely). All other parties’ chances are negligible.
Context
Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 38.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 38.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 32.5% to 42.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 38.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 41.5% to 37.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability rose from 34.5% to 42.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 36.5% to 42.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
The next Russian parliamentary election is scheduled for September 2026. This contract identifies the party that finishes third by seats in the State Duma. Because the market settles on seat counts rather than vote percentages, a party can claim the third spot with a modest vote share if seats are dispersed. Resolution is set for Sep 20, 2026 if a definitive result is available; otherwise the market resolves to “Other.”
Traders currently see New People (NL) with a 56.0% chance, leaving the race close to a coin flip. This is a market-derived probability, updated in near real time as participants absorb polls, registration announcements, and campaign dynamics. The contract’s price has ranged from 32.0% to 59.0% over its lifetime, with total trading volume around $77.8K. Only seat totals matter. If parties tie on seats, the higher valid-vote tally ranks first, and the alphabet breaks any remaining tie. The result will be taken from credible reporting or, if needed, official Central Election Commission data. The contract’s rules also handle coalitions: when a listed party runs as part of a joint list, all the coalition’s seats are attributed to that party. If two or more listed parties are in the same coalition, the seats go to the one that won more seats in the previous election. LDPR and KPRF are the main alternatives, but for now the market leans toward New People.
FAQ
What does this market measure?
It asks which political party will win the third‑most seats in Russia’s next State Duma election, scheduled for September 2026. The outcome is based solely on seat count, not vote share or any other metric.
How are ties broken?
If two or more parties have the same number of seats, the one with more total valid votes across the country is ranked higher. If they are still tied, the party whose abbreviation comes first alphabetically wins.
What happens if a party runs as part of a coalition?
If a listed party campaigns inside a joint list with unlisted parties, the market’s outcome for that party represents the whole coalition and counts all seats won. When two or more listed parties form a coalition together, the party that won more seats at the previous election gets the coalition’s seats for this market.
When does the market resolve?
Resolution occurs once credible reporting or official Russian government sources confirm the results. If no definitive outcome is known by Sep 20, 2026, the market settles to “Other.”
What is the current probability?
New People (NL) is priced at 56.0% to finish third in seats. The probability changes as traders digest polls, registration news, and political events.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice