Russian Duma 2026: Third-Place Party Odds

Prediction markets have settled Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election at 99.5%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary electionEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement

Updated · Volume $255.6K

6%37%69%100%Aug 22Aug 30Sep 6Sep 14Sep 21
OutcomeProbability24h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?99.5%+13.5
Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?1.4%-9.6
Will Party O win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Yabloko win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%-0.1
Will Party G win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party U win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party X win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party V win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Rodina win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%-0.1
Will Party I win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party F win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party W win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will United Russia (ER) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%-0.1
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%-0.1
Will Other win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party R win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party E win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party K win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party P win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party Y win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party T win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party B win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party Q win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party M win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%-0.1
Will Party J win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party Z win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party H win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party L win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party D win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party C win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Party S win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%-0.1
Will Party N win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.0%0.0

Context

Sep 17, 2026

Probability rose from 56.0% to 62.0% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 11, 2026

Probability rose from 46.0% to 56.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.

Show earlier updates

Aug 25, 2026

Probability fell from 41.0% to 38.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.

Aug 24, 2026

Probability fell from 40.5% to 38.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.

Aug 20, 2026

Probability rose from 32.5% to 42.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.

Aug 19, 2026

Probability fell from 41.0% to 38.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.

Aug 18, 2026

Probability fell from 41.5% to 37.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.

This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.

The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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