Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 22.0% to 100.0% — a 78.0-point move over the past day.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Meeting by August 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $684.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | 99.6% | — |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 20.5% to 99.9% — a 79.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 37.0% to 98.0% — a 61.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 56.0% to 70.5% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 69.0% to 56.5% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 39.0% to 28.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 49.0% to 33.5% — a 15.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 32.0% to 48.0% — a 16.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 31.5% to 42.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 31.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice