Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 55.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by Dec 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027 at 49.5%.
49.5%-0.5 pts 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?
Updated · Volume $6.3M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? | 36.5% | -0.5 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 19.5% | +1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | 7.5% | -1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | 0.1% | -0.2 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 55.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 59.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 69.0% to 59.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 44.0% to 69.0% — a 25.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 7 tracked outcomes and $6.3M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027, is priced at 49.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice