Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 58.0% to 69.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by Dec 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027 at 47.5%.
47.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?
Updated · Volume $7.5M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027? | 69.5% | +1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027? | 67.5% | +0.5 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027? | 65.5% | +4.5 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027? | 65.5% | +0.5 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027? | 64.0% | -0.5 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027? | 61.5% | +3.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? | 54.5% | 0.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? | 54.0% | +0.5 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027? | 47.5% | -1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? | 41.5% | 0.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027? | 38.0% | 0.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? | 34.5% | 0.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 22.5% | +0.5 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? | 15.5% | 0.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | 8.5% | -1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Context
Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 36.0% to 68.0% — a 32.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 62.5% to 57.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: U.S. envoys in Moscow in new push for peace between Russia and Ukraine — NPR News
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 46.5% to 60.5% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US envoys headed to Russia and Ukraine to relaunch mediation — Al Jazeera
Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 47.0% to 58.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US envoys headed to Russia and Ukraine to relaunch mediation — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 55.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 55.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 59.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 69.0% to 59.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 44.0% to 69.0% — a 25.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 18 tracked outcomes and $7.5M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027, is priced at 47.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice