Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 18.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by 2026: Current Odds
Prediction markets give a ceasefire by December 31, 2026, a 13.5% chance, a unlikely view. To count, the truce must be mutually agreed and hold for at least 10 straight calendar days.
13.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $1.9M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 13.5% | -1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Among the listed deadlines, the December 2026 scenario attracts the most trading interest; the earlier October 2026 date and the other outcomes remain distant possibilities.
Context
The probability of a ceasefire by end-2026 currently stands at 13.5%. Over the observation period, the price has moved between 12.5% and 19.5%. The market resolves to 'Yes' if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM EET on December 31, 2026, and lasts uninterrupted for at least 10 calendar days. A qualifying ceasefire must be a mutually agreed and announced general suspension of direct military engagement across the primary theater. Informal understandings, unilateral pauses, or targeted agreements limited to specific weapons or regions do not count. The 10-day requirement is measured in EET, with the ceasefire considered intact unless a consensus of credible reporting confirms that wide-scale hostilities have resumed, regardless of isolated violations. The resolution date is Dec 31, 2026. Any event that alters the perceived chances of a durable truce before that date can shift the market. The outcome rests on a consensus of credible sources assessing both the announcement and the sustained cessation of hostilities.
FAQ
What exactly qualifies as a ceasefire?
It must be a mutually agreed and publicly announced general suspension of direct military engagement across the primary conflict zone. It does not need to be a formal peace deal; humanitarian pauses or holiday ceasefires also count if they meet the core criteria.
How is the 10-day requirement applied?
The 10-day clock starts when the ceasefire goes into effect and runs continuously in Eastern European Time. The market waits until the truce has held for a full 10 calendar days before resolving to “Yes”; it remains open beyond the announcement date until the condition is met.
What if violations occur during the ceasefire?
Isolated incidents, temporary lapses, or mutual accusations do not automatically break the ceasefire. It is considered invalid only if a consensus of credible reporting indicates that the general suspension of hostilities has substantively ended across the primary theater.
Who determines whether the conditions are met?
The market relies on a consensus of credible sources—typically established news organizations and conflict monitors—rather than official government statements alone. If reporting contradicts official claims, the reporting takes precedence.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice