Will there be a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
As of 9 min ago, the market prices the probability of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine coming into effect by December 31, 2026 at 24.5%. A ten-day continuous suspension of hostilities is required for the market to resolve Yes.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $797.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 24.5% | +1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | 12.5% | 0.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
The market treats a ceasefire by the end of 2026 as the central scenario, while all earlier deadlines and other specified dates are priced as considerably less likely.
Context
As of 9 min ago, the headline probability stands at 24.5%. It has ranged from 20.5% to 32.5% during the market's life. Total volume stands at $797.3K. For a Yes resolution, a ceasefire must be mutually agreed and officially announced by both countries or confirmed by credible reporting, constitute a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater, and remain continuously in effect for at least ten calendar days. Temporary lapses, isolated violations, or disputes do not invalidate the ceasefire as long as the broader cessation holds. The market uses a consensus of credible sources, with field reporting taking precedence over official statements if they conflict. The probability will be sensitive to any announcements or confirmations of a ceasefire agreement ahead of the resolution date of Dec 31, 2026. Reports of negotiations, partial truces, or humanitarian pauses would not alone satisfy the criteria, but could signal movement toward a qualifying cessation. The ten-day clock starts only once a ceasefire is substantively in effect.
FAQ
What qualifies as a ceasefire under this market?
A mutually agreed and officially announced suspension of direct military engagement across the primary theater of the conflict, confirmed by credible reporting, and lasting at least ten consecutive calendar days.
How is the ten-day period measured?
It begins on the day the ceasefire goes into effect and includes that day; it ends at 11:59 PM EET on the tenth day, provided the ceasefire remains continuously in effect.
Do temporary violations or isolated incidents invalidate the ceasefire?
No. As long as the general suspension of hostilities persists across the primary theater according to credible consensus, localised lapses or disputes do not break the ceasefire.
What happens if official statements conflict with on-the-ground reporting?
Credible field reporting takes precedence over government statements when determining whether a ceasefire is substantively in effect.
When does the market resolve to No?
If no qualifying ceasefire goes into effect by the resolution deadline, or if a ceasefire fails to last the required ten days, the market resolves to No.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice