Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: Live Probability & Odds

The headline probability now sits at 72.5%. It has traded between 24.5% and 54.5% over the observed period. Over the last day, the number has moved by +8.5 pts. To settle Yes, there must be a diplomatic meeting between Russian and Ukrainian representatives acting in an official capacity, held before the market's deadline. The meeting must be in-person—indirect talks through authorized mediators qualify—and must address ceasefire, peace, or other substantive de-escalation. Strictly humanitarian discussions do not count unless they also include broader peace terms. Brief greetings or chance encounters are excluded. The meeting must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media; remote meetings, phone calls, or video links do not qualify. The deadline is Dec 31, 2026. Any meeting that meets the criteria before then would move the odds. Official announcements or credible reports of a qualifying meeting would trigger settlement; otherwise the market resolves No.