Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 35.5% to 44.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
SCOTUS Sports Event Contract Case: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026 at 45.5%.
45.5%-0.5 pts 24h
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $988.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? | 45.5% | -0.5 |
| SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by October 31, 2026? | 9.5% | -3.5 |
| SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 3 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 32.0% to 47.0% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 24.5% to 35.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 45.0% to 30.5% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 51.5% to 41.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 29.0% to 53.0% — a 24.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 30.5% to 47.0% — a 16.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 44.0% to 38.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 39.0% to 44.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 35.5% to 45.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 3 tracked outcomes and $988.0K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026, is priced at 45.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice