Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 95.0% to 99.7% — a 4.7-point move over the past day.
Serbian Parliamentary Election Before 2027?: Odds & Probability
Markets price the likelihood that Serbia calls a parliamentary election before 2027 at 99.7%. The contract resolves to 'Yes' only if an official announcement is made by Jan 1, 2027.
99.7%
Updated · Volume $46.4K
The 'Yes' outcome is favored, while the 'No' outcome is a long shot.
Context
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 90.9% to 99.8% — a 8.9-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 95.2% to 93.8% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 91.5% to 96.4% — a 4.8-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 93.3% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 90.0% to 98.9% — a 8.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 72.5% to 85.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 73.5% to 82.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 73.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 86.0% to 78.0% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
The probability currently sits at 99.7%. Its range over the period has been 84.0% to 99.8%. The contract settles based on one condition: whether the next Serbian parliamentary election is officially scheduled between market creation and Jan 1, 2027. If such a call is made by then, it resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise it resolves to 'No'. The date the election itself takes place has no bearing on settlement. Resolution relies primarily on official information from the Government of Serbia, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The number moves on any credible signal that an election call is imminent or becoming less likely ahead of the deadline. The final outcome depends entirely on whether a formal announcement occurs by Jan 1, 2027. Any report suggesting a delay or early scheduling would shift the probability accordingly.
FAQ
What determines if the market resolves to 'Yes'?
An official announcement by the Serbian government that a parliamentary election will take place, made between market creation and the resolution deadline.
Does the date the election actually takes place matter?
No. The market only cares about the scheduling call, not the election date itself.
What if the government announces an election after December 31, 2026?
It resolves to 'No'. The call must be made by the deadline.
What sources are used to resolve the market?
Primarily official information from the Government of Serbia, but credible reporting can also be considered if official confirmation is unclear.
What happens if no election is called by the deadline?
The market resolves to 'No'.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice