Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization Odds
Prediction markets give a unlikely 12.5% chance that daily transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz climb back to 60 before Aug 31, 2026. The bet settles as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average meeting that bar, or on August 31 if it never materializes.
Updated · Volume $687.0K
The market sees a return to normal traffic as unlikely, making the status quo of continued disruption the heavy favorite.
Context
Since the market opened, the probability has ranged from 12.5% to 48.0%. This market resolves to Yes if IMF Portwatch—the resolution source—publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz of 60 or higher for any day between the market’s creation and August 31, 2026. The count includes container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers; only ships appearing in Portwatch data count. If the threshold goes unreached, the market settles No once data for the final date is published, or 14 days after the period’s end if that data is missing. Revisions issued during the period are considered but cannot disqualify a previously qualifying reading; revisions after August 31, 2026 data are ignored. Obvious data errors may trigger a three-day correction window. The resolution deadline of Aug 31, 2026 anchors the market. New IMF Portwatch updates—daily when active—can shift the odds, as can revisions to past transit-call figures. Any official correction of clear data errors would also affect pricing. Other geopolitical or shipping developments might influence traders, but only Portwatch’s published 7-day average determines the payout.
FAQ
What is the resolution source for this market?
The market resolves solely on transit calls data for the Strait of Hormuz published by IMF Portwatch, available at their dedicated page and through downloadable files.
How is traffic 'returning to normal' defined?
It is defined specifically as a 7-day moving average of daily transit calls that is equal to or above 60. This covers container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships that Portwatch reports.
What happens if the 60-call threshold is reached before August 31, 2026?
The market would resolve to Yes immediately upon IMF Portwatch publishing the qualifying 7-day moving average, regardless of how much time remains until the deadline.
Are data revisions considered?
Yes, revisions to previously published data points made within the market’s timeframe can trigger a Yes resolution, but they cannot take away a Yes once one has been triggered. Revisions made after data for August 31, 2026 is published are not considered.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice