Aug 12, 2026
Probability fell from 5.1% to 3.9% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Oil prices rise as attacks dent hopes for Strait of Hormuz reopening — Al Jazeera
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give 0.1% odds that the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal traffic levels—defined as a 7-day moving average of transit calls hitting 60 on IMF Portwatch before Sep 1, 2026.
0.1%0.0 pts 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Updated · Volume $25.0M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The 'Yes' outcome is the only scenario with actively traded odds, and markets price it as effectively ruled out.
Context
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 7.5% to 3.9% — a 3.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Tanker sailors still face danger in the Strait of Hormuz — NPR News
The contract has traded between 0.1% and 19.5% since launch, currently at 0.1%. The market settles 'Yes' if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 on any day from creation through Sep 1, 2026. If no such day occurs, it resolves 'No'. The data counts container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers; other vessel types are ignored. Resolution can happen instantly once the threshold is met, or at the end of the window. Revisions to earlier data points are considered so long as they are made before the deadline, but they do not strip away a qualification already recorded. In the event of clear clerical errors, the market may remain open for up to three calendar days to allow corrections. The only formal driver is the IMF Portwatch transit calls series. Each daily update nudges the 7-day moving average; traders assess whether it might breach the 60-mark. The final cutoff is Sep 1, 2026.
FAQ
What is the resolution source?
The IMF Portwatch portal, specifically the transit calls data for the Strait of Hormuz, accessible via their website and downloadable files.
Which vessels are included in the count?
Container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo vessels, and tankers. Any ship type not reported by IMF Portwatch is excluded.
How quickly can the market settle?
It can resolve immediately once the IMF data shows a 7-day moving average at or above 60. If the threshold is never met, it resolves after data for Sep 1, 2026 is published.
Do data revisions affect the outcome?
Yes, revisions to previously published figures are considered if they occur within the market's timeframe. But a revision cannot invalidate an earlier qualifying day.
What happens if there are obvious data errors?
The market may stay open for up to three calendar days after an erroneous release to allow corrections, but only for clear clerical mistakes—not disagreements with other sources.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice