Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normal by July 2026? Odds & Probability
Markets assign a 0.3% probability to a return to normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by July 15, 2026, as measured by IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average of daily transit calls reaching 60 or above.
Updated · Volume $10.4M
The market overwhelmingly expects traffic to remain below normal through July 15, 2026, with a 0.3% chance of a recovery in the 7-day moving average to 60 or above.
Context
This prediction market, with cumulative volume of $10.28 million, gives a 0.3% chance that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by July 15, 2026. The contract’s resolution hinges on a specific threshold: the 7-day moving average of daily transit calls published by IMF Portwatch must reach 60 or above. A ‘transit call’ is an arrival of a commercial vessel through the strait, covering container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers. Ships not tracked by IMF Portwatch are excluded. The market resolves early if the condition is met at any point after creation. If no qualifying reading appears by the end date, and data for July 15, 2026 has been published (or 14 calendar days have passed after that date without new data), it settles to No. The contract allows for revisions to previously published figures made within the timeframe, but once the final data is out, late corrections do not change the outcome. Obvious data errors, such as clerical mistakes, may keep the market open for up to three extra days while corrections are expected. The current price of 0.3% signals strong conviction that the moving average will stay below 60. The market’s $10.28 million in volume suggests participants view this as a meaningful tail risk. With the resolution date over a year away, new developments could alter the trajectory, but for now traders are firmly betting on continued disruption. The moving-average design smooths out daily noise; it would take a sustained week of elevated calls to meet the threshold. The overwhelming consensus holds that low-traffic patterns will persist, with almost no one willing to take the opposite side.
FAQ
What qualifies as “normal” traffic in this market?
The market defines normal as a 7-day moving average of transit calls—daily vessel arrivals counted by IMF Portwatch—of 60 or above, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
How likely is it that traffic returns to normal by July 2026?
Prediction markets currently price the probability at just 0.3%, implying extremely strong odds against a recovery reaching the 60-call threshold.
When will the market resolve?
It resolves early if the moving average hits 60 at any point. Otherwise, it settles to No shortly after the final data for July 15, 2026 is published, with a possible 14-day grace period for late data releases.
What data source is used to determine the outcome?
The market uses IMF Portwatch’s published transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz, accessible via chart or downloadable files. Only vessels reported by Portwatch are considered.
What happens if IMF Portwatch data is revised after the end date?
Revisions made within the active timeframe are allowed, but corrections published after the final data is released (post July 15, 2026) will not change the outcome. Obvious data errors may prompt a brief extension.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice