Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal: Odds & Probability
Markets priced the chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic would return to normal by July 15, 2026 at 0.0%, a level many traders considered effectively ruled out.
Updated · Volume $11.8M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
The market’s only direct listing—traffic returning to normal—was priced at 0.0%, with its complement absorbing the remaining probability.
Context
The probability of a return to normal traffic hovered near zero for the market’s entire run 54 min ago. Any move was tiny, and the market never traded with conviction that the threshold would be met. IMF Portwatch was the sole arbiter. The market resolved to “Yes” only if the 7-day moving average of daily transit calls in the Strait of Hormuz reached 60 or more at any point up to July 15, 2026. The count included container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Vessels unreported by Portwatch were ignored. As long as the data avoided obvious clerical errors, revisions published within the timeframe counted, but they could not undo a previously qualifying reading. If Portwatch failed to publish data for the final date within 14 calendar days, the market would settle on what had been published by then. The mechanics left little room for ambiguity, and the low probability reflected the market’s view that the actual ship count would not reach the trigger.
FAQ
How was normal traffic defined in this market?
It required the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz to equal or exceed 60 on any day between creation and July 15, 2026.
What data counted toward the threshold?
Daily transit calls of container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships as reported by IMF Portwatch. Ships not reported were excluded.
How were data revisions handled?
Revisions within the timeframe could be considered, but they could not invalidate a previously qualifying reading. Errors due to data integrity issues could be corrected within three calendar days.
What if IMF Portwatch didn’t publish data for the end of the period?
The market would resolve using the data available up to 14 calendar days after July 15, 2026.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice