Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal by July 2026? Odds at 0.1%
Betting markets give a near-zero probability—just 0.1%—to the Strait of Hormuz seeing a 7-day moving average of transit calls reach 60 by July 7, 2026, a level this market defines as normal.
Updated · Volume $2.2M
The market expects traffic to remain below normal, with a near-certain 99.9% probability of the No outcome, while the Yes side trades at a vanishing 0.1%.
Context
This prediction market asks whether a 7-day moving average of ship transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz will hit 60 or above at any point by July 7, 2026. The data comes from IMF Portwatch, which publishes daily counts that include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Vessels not reported by the platform are excluded. The 60-call threshold serves as a rough proxy for normal traffic levels. With about $2.2 million in trading volume, the market has drawn significant attention. The Yes contract trades at prices implying a 0.1% chance of the event occurring, while the No side commands a 99.9% probability. That means traders en masse see it as overwhelmingly likely that the 7-day average will stay below 60 for the next two years. Resolution hinges entirely on IMF Portwatch data—both the chart and downloadable files at its dedicated page for the strait. The market will resolve early if the 7-day moving average reaches 60 or above on any day before the end date. Otherwise it waits until the final data for July 7, 2026, is published, with a 14-day grace period for late releases. Revisions to data before that final publication are considered, though a reading that already met the threshold cannot be invalidated by later corrections. Clerical errors may trigger a short extension for fixes.
FAQ
What exactly does this market predict?
It predicts whether the 7-day moving average of daily ship transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by IMF Portwatch, will reach 60 or above on any day between the market’s creation and July 7, 2026.
What counts as a transit call?
IMF Portwatch includes container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers. Other ship types or vessels not captured by the platform are excluded.
How does the market resolve?
It resolves to Yes as soon as the 7-day moving average hits 60 or above. If that never happens by the end date, and all data for that date is published (with a 14-day cushion), it resolves to No. Revisions to earlier data are considered if they appear before the final data release, but they cannot overturn a previously qualifying reading.
Why is the probability so low?
The market price reflects collective expectations among traders. While the data cannot speak to causes, the 0.1% chance suggests deep conviction that traffic will remain subdued through mid-2026.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice