Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by July 7? | Live odds
As of 61 d ago, prediction markets priced the chance that ship transit calls in the Strait of Hormuz recover to normal levels by July 7, 2026 at 0.1%.
Updated · Volume $2.2M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
The market’s single Yes outcome was effectively ruled out at 0.1%.
Context
The probability of a return to normal traffic has. By the latest reading, it sat at 0.1%, a level that reflects effectively ruled out. Resolution hinges on IMF Portwatch data. The market will settle to “Yes” if a 7‑day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz—covering container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll‑on/roll‑off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers—equals or exceeds 60 on any day between the market’s creation and July 7, 2026. Ships not tracked by IMF Portwatch are excluded. If the threshold is never reached, the market resolves to “No”. Settlement occurs as soon as the qualifying reading appears or, failing that, after data for the final date is published with no such value. If data for July 7 is not published within 14 calendar days, the market resolves on what has been released up to that point. Revisions issued during the market’s timeframe count, but a reading that already qualified stands. Revisions that arrive after the July 7 data is out are ignored.
FAQ
What event determines the resolution?
The market resolves “Yes” if IMF Portwatch reports a 7‑day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz of 60 or more on any day between the market’s launch and July 7, 2026. Failing that, it resolves “No”.
Which ships are counted?
The figure includes container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll‑on/roll‑off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers that appear in IMF Portwatch’s data. Any vessel not reported by the platform is excluded.
What if data is revised?
A revision that occurs during the market’s active period will be taken into account, but it cannot overturn a previously valid qualifying reading. Revisions made after the final date’s data are published are not considered.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice