Aug 10, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 16.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Oil prices climb as Iranian demands cloud outlook for Strait of Hormuz — Al Jazeera
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization Odds
Markets assign a 2.9% chance that transit through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of September 2026, pricing the outcome as a long shot. Resolution hinges on daily transit-call readings published by IMF Portwatch.
2.9%-0.6 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $7.1M
The “Yes” outcome is priced as a substantial minority view, while the “No” outcome—traffic failing to reach the threshold—is the market’s favored scenario.
Context
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 23.5% to 18.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Hormuz talks positive, Oman says, as Iran warns deal would not open strait — BBC News
Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 23.5% to 33.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Qatar says indirect talks continue to reopen Strait of Hormuz — Al Jazeera
Aug 2, 2026
Probability rose from 15.5% to 23.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 18.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran and Oman swap proposals to manage Strait of Hormuz: What we know — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 24.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 21.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability fell from 23.5% to 18.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
The market-implied probability has moved within a range from 2.5% to 33.5% over the life of this contract, recently shifting -0.6 pts over the last day. The market resolves to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch reports a 7‑day moving average of transit calls—covering container, dry bulk, roll‑on/roll‑off, general cargo, and tanker ships—equal to or above 60 for any date before Sep 30, 2026. It resolves to “No” once data for Sep 30, 2026 is published without hitting that threshold, or earlier if the condition is met. Revisions made during the period are considered but cannot invalidate a previously qualifying data point. The resolution date Sep 30, 2026 and the pace of IMF Portwatch data releases are the formal milestones that could shift the odds. Any published 7‑day moving average at or above 60 settles the market in favor of normalization before the deadline; failing that, the market resolves on the final day’s data.
FAQ
What data does the market use to determine if traffic returns to normal?
The market relies exclusively on IMF Portwatch’s daily transit-call estimates for the Strait of Hormuz, available on their website and via downloadable datasets.
What threshold must transit calls reach for a Yes resolution?
The 7‑day moving average of transit calls must be at least 60 on any single date between the contract’s creation and September 30, 2026.
Which types of ships are included in the count?
The count covers container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll‑on/roll‑off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch are excluded.
What if no data is published for the final day of the period?
If IMF Portwatch releases no data for September 30, 2026 within 14 calendar days after that date, the market resolves based on all data published up to that point.
Can revisions to earlier data affect the outcome?
Revisions made within the market’s timeframe are considered and can contribute to a qualifying 7‑day moving average. However, a previously valid resolution is not overturned by later revisions, and revisions after data for September 30, 2026 is published are ignored.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice