Aug 11, 2026
Probability fell from 23.0% to 17.0% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Sudan’s army chief holds unannounced talks on national dialogue — Al Jazeera
Sudan Ceasefire by 2026: Live Market Odds
Prediction markets currently price the likelihood of a formal ceasefire between Sudan’s rival military forces by the end of 2026 at 11.5%, unlikely. The agreement requires a publicly announced, mutual halt to hostilities between the RSF and SAF by that date, with both official sources and credible media consensus counting toward resolution.
11.5%0.0 pts 24h
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $119.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 11.5% | 0.0 |
| Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Sudan civil war ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Sudan civil war ceasefire in 2025? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The 2026 ceasefire outcome is the most probable scenario tracked, while the remaining possibilities—including earlier or later dates and scenarios without a deal—are all long shots.
Context
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 26.5% to 19.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
The probability has moved from 7.5% to 14.5% over the observed period, with a 0.0 pts shift in the last day. It currently stands at 11.5%. The market resolves to ‘Yes’ if, by the designated deadline, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) issue a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement. A peace deal or political framework qualifies only if it includes an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting. Informal accords and humanitarian pauses do not count. Resolution relies on official statements from both parties, though wide consensus among credible media reports is sufficient. The probability reflects the market’s assessment of whether a ceasefire meeting these criteria will materialize before the deadline. Formal triggers include the release of joint or separate official announcements, credible media reports of an agreement, and the approach of the resolution date without an accord.
FAQ
What exactly constitutes an official ceasefire for this market?
A publicly announced, mutually agreed halt to military engagement between the RSF and SAF, effective by a specific date. Either joint or separate statements from the two forces meet the test.
Do humanitarian pauses or informal truces count?
No. Only formal, explicit ceasefire agreements qualify. Humanitarian pauses and informal arrangements are excluded.
How does a peace deal or political framework affect the outcome?
A peace deal or framework resolves the market as ‘Yes’ if it includes a clear, dated commitment to stop fighting. Vague plans for future peace without an immediate cessation are insufficient.
What happens if one side claims a ceasefire but the other denies it?
The market requires mutual agreement. Resolution will be based on credible media consensus if official announcements are contradictory or absent.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice