Sep 13, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 32.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Premier Cho Jung-tai out by 2026? Live Probability
As of 12 min ago, prediction markets put the odds at 30.5% that Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai leaves his post before the end of 2026, a scenario traders rate as a substantial minority view.
30.5%0.0 pts 24h
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $137.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026? | 30.5% | 0.0 |
| Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline scenario is priced as a substantial minority view, while the remaining possibilities—including Cho’s continuation in office—are long shots by market reckoning.
Context
Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 32.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 17.0% to 38.5% — a 21.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 17.0% to 54.5% — a 37.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 17.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 7, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 18.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 19.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 17.0% to 22.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 1, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 18.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 18.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
The probability has held in a confined range between 13.5% and 62.5%, with little sustained direction. Over the past day it moved by 0.0 pts,
The market resolves to “Yes” the moment Cho Jung-tai ceases to be premier for any stretch of time—however brief—between the contract’s creation and Jan 1, 2027. An announced resignation or removal triggers immediate resolution, irrespective of the effective date. Detention, effective removal, or any other permanent barrier to performing the duties also qualifies. The primary resolution source is official information from Cho Jung-tai or Taiwan’s government, though a consensus of credible reporting may be relied upon. The calendar is the main lever: the deadline of Jan 1, 2027 sets the window. Any formal word, official or from a trusted press consensus, that Cho is out before then would settle the market early. Without such an event, the probability remains anchored near its floor.
FAQ
What counts as Cho Jung-tai being “out” as premier?
Any period in which he ceases to hold the office—through resignation, removal, detention, or being otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties—qualifies, no matter how short.
Can the market resolve before the end date?
Yes. If an announcement of his resignation or removal surfaces before then, the market resolves to “Yes” immediately, regardless of when the change takes effect.
What sources decide the outcome?
The market looks first to official statements from Cho Jung-tai or Taiwan’s government. If those are unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting can be used.
Does a temporary absence trigger a “Yes”?
Yes. Even a temporary removal from the post, if the premier is unable to perform his duties for any period, can satisfy the condition.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice