Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei: Odds & Probability
Markets price a meeting between Donald Trump and Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei at 2.1%, a a long shot scenario.
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?
Updated · Volume $200.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? | 2.1% | -0.6 |
| Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline scenario of a meeting by the deadline is a a long shot outcome, while all other resolution scenarios are considered even less likely.
Context
Prediction markets currently price the likelihood of a meeting at 2.1%. The market resolves to 'Yes' if credible reporting confirms that Donald Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei met in person between the market’s creation and 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. A meeting requires direct interaction—such as a handshake or exchange of words—and not merely being in the same room. The resolution is settled by a consensus of credible reporting. The price will react to news of any planned or actual encounter. Absent such reports, the odds tend to drift lower as the deadline approaches. Because the market relies on credible reporting, any leak, official statement, or photographic evidence could shift the probability sharply.
FAQ
What counts as a meeting for this market?
A meeting requires in-person interaction between both individuals, such as a handshake or conversation. Simply being in the same room without direct interaction does not qualify.
How is the resolution determined?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If major news outlets confirm a meeting, it resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, 'No'.
Does the meeting have to be in person?
Yes, the market specifically requires an in-person encounter. Virtual meetings or phone calls do not count.
When does the market expire?
The market expires at 11:59 PM ET on the listed date if no meeting has been confirmed by then.
What if they meet on the exact deadline?
If a meeting occurs before 11:59 PM ET on the deadline date and is confirmed, the market resolves to 'Yes'. Time is based on Eastern Time.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice