Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 62.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Trump, Putin hold ‘frank’ phone call as US restarts Ukraine deal efforts — Al Jazeera
Trump Meets Putin by Dec 31: Live Odds
Prediction markets give a 73.5% probability that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in person before the end of the year, a the favored outcome. For the market to resolve ‘Yes,’ the two leaders must interact directly—a handshake or a short conversation qualifies.
73.5%+2.5 pts 24h
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?
Updated · Volume $283.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Trump meets with Putin by December 31? | 73.5% | +2.5 |
| Trump meets with Putin by September 30? | 0.8% | -0.1 |
| Trump meets with Putin by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline scenario commands the spotlight as a the favored outcome, while the remaining outcomes are all unlikely.
Context
Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 58.5% to 64.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 56.0% to 61.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 57.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: What’s really behind Trump’s deference to Putin? — The Guardian
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 49.5% to 60.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: What’s really behind Trump’s deference to Putin? — The Guardian
Show earlier updates
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 44.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 37.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 38.5% to 42.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
The contract has traded between 44.5% and 74.5% and currently sits at 73.5% as of 11 min ago. The market resolves to ‘Yes’ if Trump and Putin have any in-person encounter involving direct interaction, such as an exchange of words, a handshake, or a conversation. Simply being in the same room or at the same event without contact does not count. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. The cutoff is Jan 1, 2027; beyond that, the probability falls to zero without a qualifying meeting. No single scheduled summit guarantees a resolution, but major diplomatic events could move the number. The trigger is mechanical: any face-to-face interaction before the deadline.
FAQ
What qualifies as a meeting between Trump and Putin?
Any in-person encounter where the two leaders interact directly—a handshake, a conversation, or another clear exchange. Standing near each other or attending the same event without direct contact does not count.
How does the market determine the outcome?
Credible reporting decides. If multiple reliable sources confirm a direct meeting, the market resolves to ‘Yes.’ Otherwise, it resolves to ‘No.’
What happens if they meet but don’t shake hands?
A handshake is not required. Any direct interaction, such as a brief conversation, is sufficient for the market to resolve ‘Yes.’
When does the market expire?
It expires at 11:59 PM ET on Jan 1, 2027. If no qualifying meeting occurs by then, the market resolves to ‘No.’
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice