Trump out as President before 2027: Latest Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of Donald Trump ceasing to be president before 2027 at 6.5%, an outcome they consider unlikely. The contract resolves Yes only for permanent removal — resignation, ouster, or a sustained 25th Amendment invocation.
Updated · Volume $11.2M
The Yes scenario remains unlikely according to market pricing, with the overwhelming consensus favoring Trump staying in office through the period.
Context
The market-implied likelihood has consistently pointed to a low probability. The 24-hour move is 0.0 pts Total volume traded is $11.2M. The contract pays out Yes if Trump resigns, is removed, or is permanently replaced via the 25th Amendment before the close of 2026. An announcement of such an event settles the market immediately, regardless of effective date. Impeachment without removal does not qualify, nor do temporary incapacity arrangements — only a sustained Section 4 invocation, backed by two-thirds of both Houses, counts. Otherwise, it settles No. The resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. The market's only fixed deadline is Jan 1, 2027. Any credible report of a permanent exit before then would trigger a Yes; failing that, it finishes No. There are no interim scheduled events — the number reacts to news that alters the perceived odds of a presidency-ending development.
FAQ
What specific events lead to a Yes resolution?
Resignation, removal from office, or a sustained 25th Amendment Section 4 invocation upheld by Congress.
Does the market resolve Yes if Trump is impeached but not removed?
No. Impeachment alone is insufficient; only actual removal from office qualifies.
What happens if the 25th Amendment is invoked temporarily, such as during a medical procedure?
Temporary transfers of power under Section 3 or a Section 4 challenge that fails to gain congressional support do not trigger a Yes. Only a permanent, sustained removal counts.
How is the outcome verified?
By a consensus of credible reporting, as per the market's rules.
If Trump leaves office briefly and returns, does it count?
No. The rules explicitly exclude temporary removal; the market requires a permanent departure from the presidency.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice