Trump out as President before 2027: 7.5% probability
Traders on prediction markets price the chance of Donald Trump leaving office before 2027 at 7.5%. That implies roughly 1-in-13 odds of resignation, removal, or sustained 25th Amendment invocation by December 31, 2026.
Updated · Volume $9.9M
The market implies a 7.5% probability of Trump leaving office early, with a 92.5% chance he remains president through the end of 2026.
Context
This market asks whether Donald Trump permanently ceases to be President on or before December 31, 2026. A “Yes” outcome requires permanent removal from office. The resolution criteria are strict: resignation, conviction in an impeachment trial, or a sustained invocation of the 25th Amendment’s Section 4 each qualify. Under Section 4, the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet must declare the President unable to discharge his duties; if the President contests, the declaration must be upheld by a two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate. Mere impeachment by the House without Senate conviction does not count. Temporary transfers of power—such as a brief Section 3 arrangement or a Section 4 challenge that fails to get congressional supermajorities—are explicitly excluded. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, and the market will resolve to Yes upon announcement of a qualifying removal, regardless of the effective date. These constitutional hurdles are high, and the market’s probability of 7.5% suggests traders view an early departure as unlikely but not out of the question. At this price, the implied odds are roughly 13-to-1 against such an event. The corresponding likelihood of no early departure is 92.5%. With nearly $10 million in total trading volume, the market has attracted substantial interest from those seeking to trade on U.S. political risk. The end date of December 31, 2026, sets a clear binary outcome: either a qualifying removal occurs before then, or it does not. The 7.5% figure is the current market-clearing price and may change as events unfold.
FAQ
What does this prediction market measure?
It measures the probability that Donald Trump permanently leaves the presidency before January 1, 2027, through resignation, removal via impeachment conviction, or a sustained 25th Amendment declaration.
How likely is Trump to leave office early, according to the market?
The market currently prices the probability at 7.5%, implying about a 1-in-13 chance of an early departure.
What events would trigger a “Yes” resolution?
A “Yes” requires permanent removal: resignation, conviction in an impeachment trial, or a 25th Amendment Section 4 invocation upheld by two-thirds of both the House and Senate. Temporary transfers or impeachment without conviction do not count.
How much money has been traded on this outcome?
Total trading volume is nearly $10 million, reflecting active interest in the contract.
When does this market close?
The market resolves at the end of December 31, 2026, or sooner if a qualifying removal is announced.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice