Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 25.0% to 12.5% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Trump–Greenland Deal by December 31: Market Odds
Prediction markets give 14.5% odds that a Trump-related Greenland deal is signed by December 31, a unlikely proposition. The binary contract hinges on formal signatures from both Denmark and the US on any arrangement concerning the Arctic territory.
14.5%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $100.4K
The market is closely contested, with the Yes and No outcomes both within reach.
Context
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 28.0% to 15.0% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 38.0% to 27.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 39.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 39.0% to 42.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 43.5% to 39.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 39.0% to 43.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 41.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 45.0% to 35.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 43.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
The likelihood has traded from 11.0% to 29.0% over the past period, and at 14.5% it sits near the middle of that range. This market resolves to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, authorized representatives of Denmark and the United States formally sign any deal, treaty, or similar international agreement relating to Greenland. The subject matter is irrelevant—sovereignty, security, resources, or basing rights all qualify. Announcements, statements of intent, or declarations of an agreement do not count unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Parliamentary ratification or entry into force is not required. Arrangements that predate the market’s creation are excluded. The resolution deadline is Jan 1, 2027. Any signed agreement before that time, regardless of later implementation, will trigger a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source is official information from the US and Danish governments; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. No other events—elections, public sentiment, or legislative delays—directly settle the contract.
FAQ
What counts as a qualifying agreement?
Any US–Denmark deal relating to Greenland qualifies, so long as it is formally signed by both nations. This includes treaties on sovereignty, security, resources, or basing rights. Existing arrangements do not count.
Does the agreement need to be ratified or take effect?
No. The market resolves solely on the act of signing. Parliamentary approval or entry into force is irrelevant.
What if an agreement is announced but not yet signed?
Announcements, statements of intent, or frameworks without formal signatures do not trigger a “Yes” resolution. Only a signed deal counts.
What is the resolution source?
Official communication from the US and Danish governments is the primary source. If that is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
When does the market close?
The market evaluates whether a deal is signed by December 31, 2026. Any qualifying signature after that date does not count.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice