Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 5.0% to 6.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Ukraine Coup Attempt: Live Odds
Prediction markets price the probability of a coup attempt in Ukraine at 6.3%, considering the scenario unlikely. The market will settle based on events through Jan 1, 2027.
6.3%-0.2 pts 24h
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31?
Updated · Volume $169.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Ukraine coup attempt by December 31? | 6.3% | -0.2 |
| Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The “No” outcome dominates the market, while the chance of a coup attempt is considered unlikely. All other scenarios are effectively long shots.
Context
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 2.1% to 6.0% — a 3.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability fell from 7.0% to 3.2% — a 3.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 7.0% to 3.1% — a 3.9-point move over the past day.
The market-implied probability has stayed low throughout the observed period. It currently sits at 6.3%. Trading volume stands at $169.9K. The line has been essentially flat, reflecting a stable assessment that an attempt is unlikely. To resolve “Yes,” there must be a widely reported coup attempt between market creation and Jan 1, 2027. A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow the Ukrainian government. Isolated protests or general unrest do not count. Foiled plots qualify only if credible independent sources widely report an actual attempt to execute the coup—mere arrests or disrupted plans without execution are not enough. The resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. The probability is likely to shift only if news emerges that fits the strict criteria. Until the deadline of Jan 1, 2027, any credible report of an overt act by state actors to seize power would cause the number to jump. The absence of such reports would keep it near its current level. The resolution source—a consensus of credible reporting—means that ambiguous situations may not move the number until multiple outlets confirm the nature of the event.
FAQ
What events would cause this market to resolve to Yes?
A widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine, defined as a coordinated effort by military, security forces, or state actors to overthrow the government, by Jan 1, 2027. Foiled plots that are reported as attempts also qualify if there was an attempted execution.
What happens if there is a failed coup that never gets beyond planning?
The market only resolves to Yes if there is an actual attempt to execute the coup that is widely reported. Arrests or foiled plots without an execution do not count.
Who decides what counts as “widely reported”?
The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, as determined by the market’s administrators.
Does a revolution by protesters count?
No, the definition requires involvement of state actors or military/security forces. Non-state revolutionary actions or protests alone are not enough.
What is the deadline for this market?
The market covers events from its creation until Jan 1, 2027.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice