Ukraine Election by 2025: 0% Odds
Prediction markets see virtually no chance of Ukrainian parliamentary or presidential elections this year. The probability stands at 0% for 2025, remains at zero through mid-2026, and rises to only 8.5% for the end of 2026.
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $2.5M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | 8.5% | 0.0 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025? | 0.0% | — |
| Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
The distribution reveals near-total certainty that no election will occur through mid-2026, with only an 8.5% chance of one by the end of that year.
Context
The market asks whether Ukraine will hold a national election for parliament and/or the presidency between February 12 and December 31, 2025. Merely scheduling an election does not trigger a “Yes” resolution—the vote must actually take place within that window. If an official date is set for a period outside 2025, the market resolves to “No” immediately. Resolution relies on official Ukrainian government sources or a consensus of credible reporting. Trading volume exceeds $2.48 million, indicating substantial interest. Yet the current probabilities show a decisive view: 0% for both the 2025 deadline and for June 30, 2026. The only non-zero price is the 8.5% attached to elections by December 31, 2026. This spread suggests traders are almost certain no election will happen in 2025, and even through the first half of 2026 the odds are negligible. A slight opening appears for the second half of 2026, but even that remains a low-probability outcome. In practical terms, a 0% probability signals a market consensus that the required conditions will not materialise. For the 2025 market, it implies participants see no plausible path to an election during the specified period. The 8.5% for late 2026 introduces a fringe scenario, but it is far from the baseline expectation. Whether this reflects legal constraints, the security situation, or political calculations is outside the market’s data—the numbers speak only to the aggregated belief of traders.
FAQ
What exactly does this market predict?
It predicts whether Ukraine will actually hold national elections for parliament and/or president between February 12 and December 31, 2025. Scheduling an election is not enough; the vote must occur in that timeframe.
Why is the probability 0% for 2025?
The market price reflects the collective assessment of traders. At 0%, the consensus is that there is no chance an election will take place this year under the market’s strict resolution criteria.
What does the 8.5% for December 2026 mean?
It indicates that, while most traders still expect no election, there is a small but non-zero chance that conditions could allow a vote by the end of 2026.
Can these probabilities change?
Yes. As news develops—official announcements, shifting political signals, or changes on the ground—traders adjust their positions, which moves the market price up or down.
How is the market resolved?
The primary source is official information from Ukraine’s government, supplemented by credible media reports if needed. A “Yes” requires proof that an election was held within the designated dates.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice