Oct 6, 2026
Probability rose from 1.6% to 3.3% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Ukraine Election Held by 2025: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 3.5% chance that Ukraine holds a national election by December 31, 2025, a reading that puts the event in the a long shot category. The market stipulates that voting must actually take place within that calendar year, not merely be scheduled.
3.5%-0.1 pts 24h
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $2.5M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | 3.5% | -0.1 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The binary question—whether a national election occurs in 2025—dominates the market; alternative outcomes are remote.
Context
Oct 5, 2026
Probability rose from 1.6% to 3.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Trading volume stands at $2.5M. The resolution terms are strict: the market resolves to “Yes” only if national parliamentary or presidential elections are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Scheduling an election is not enough—the vote itself must occur. If authorities set an election date outside 2025, the market resolves to “No” immediately. Several formal conditions could shift the odds. Any official government communication that confirms or rules out a 2025 contest would move prices, as would credible media reports. The resolution deadline of Feb 13, 2027 creates a natural countdown. The primary resolution source is official information from Ukraine’s government, supplemented by a consensus of reliable reporting.
FAQ
What event resolves this market?
The market resolves to “Yes” if Ukraine holds parliamentary or presidential elections between February 12 and December 31, 2025. A “No” resolution occurs if no such election takes place in that window.
Does scheduling an election count?
No. Merely scheduling a vote is not enough. The election must be conducted, and votes must be cast, within the specified timeframe.
What if an election is scheduled for after 2025?
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside 2025, the market resolves to “No” immediately, regardless of any other developments.
What sources determine the outcome?
The primary source is official information from the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting is used as a fallback or supplementary source.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice