Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026 at 4.0%.

4.0%-0.1 pts 24h

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?

Updated · Volume $2.6M

2%5%9%13%Jun 14Jun 22Jun 29Jul 7Jul 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?4.0%-0.1
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?0.0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?0.0%

The top 3 outcomes account for 4.0% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 3 tracked outcomes and $2.6M in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026, is priced at 4.0%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice