Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 21.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Will Ukraine Sign a Peace Deal with Russia by 2027?
Markets price the chance of Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by the end of 2026 at 10.5%, which traders consider unlikely. A Yes resolution requires Ukraine’s signature on any written instrument that includes both nations and either ends hostilities or outlines a defined path to peace.
10.5%-0.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $2.6M
The Yes outcome is priced at 10.5%, a substantial minority view, while the No outcome is the overwhelming favorite.
Context
Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 21.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
The probability that a peace deal is signed stands at 10.5% as of 10 min ago. It has traded between 10.5% and 19.5% in recent months. The market resolves Yes if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, Ukraine signs a written instrument—such as a treaty, ceasefire, framework, or mediated agreement—that includes both Ukraine and Russia as parties and either ends hostilities or commits to a defined peace process. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized or temporary arrangements, such as humanitarian pauses or sector-specific ceasefires, do not qualify. The document must bear an authorized Ukrainian representative’s wet-ink or official electronic signature. Unsigned agreements will not count. Resolution hinges on Jan 1, 2027, and the primary source is a consensus of credible reporting. Any news of a qualifying agreement—particularly an actual signature—would directly affect the probability. Conversely, announcements of talks without a signed document or agreements that fall short of the criteria are unlikely to shift the market.
FAQ
What exactly counts as a peace deal for this market?
A written instrument signed by Ukraine that includes both Ukraine and Russia as parties and either ends hostilities or commits to a defined peace process. This could be a treaty, ceasefire, framework, or mediated agreement.
Does Russia need to sign for the market to resolve Yes?
No, only Ukraine’s signature is required. Russia’s signature or ratification is not necessary.
Would a temporary ceasefire or humanitarian corridor count?
No, localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements like evacuation corridors or sector-specific ceasefires do not qualify. The agreement must be broad and aim at ending the war or establishing a peace process.
How is the resolution determined?
Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If multiple reliable sources confirm that Ukraine has signed a qualifying document, the market will resolve Yes.
What is the deadline?
The cutoff is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice