Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 1.1% to 3.3% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Ukraine Peace Deal with Russia by August 31: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31 at 0.1%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $321.7K
Context
Jul 26, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 7.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice