Oct 16, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 58.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
US Announces End of Iran Blockade by Aug 31: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027 at 57.5%.
57.5%-1.0 pts 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?
Updated · Volume $41.0M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | 57.5% | -1.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | 34.4% | -0.6 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | 20.5% | -1.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 6.5% | +2.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 14, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
Oct 15, 2026
Probability fell from 66.5% to 58.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 26, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 70.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran pitches US a seven-day end to the war at UNGA — Al Jazeera
Sep 25, 2026
Probability rose from 50.5% to 77.0% — a 26.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 24, 2026
Probability fell from 65.0% to 58.9% — a 6.2-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US, Iran hold mediated UNGA talks on ending war, opening Strait of Hormuz — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Sep 22, 2026
Probability rose from 59.8% to 63.6% — a 3.8-point move over the past day.
Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 59.6% to 61.4% — a 1.8-point move over the past day.
Around this time: What are Iran’s latest conditions to end its war with the US? — Al Jazeera
Sep 15, 2026
Probability rose from 59.2% to 61.3% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Sep 14, 2026
Probability fell from 66.2% to 59.0% — a 7.2-point move over the past day.
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 58.1% to 63.6% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 23 tracked outcomes and $41.0M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027, is priced at 57.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice