Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 60.1% to 59.0% — a 1.1-point move over the past day.
US Announces End of Iran Blockade by Aug 31: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026 at 55.9%.
55.9%-2.2 pts 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $26.9M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | 55.9% | -2.2 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 33.5% | -1.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | 13.5% | -5.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | 7.5% | -1.5 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | 2.5% | -1.3 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 14, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 59.9% to 61.3% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 66.5% to 56.9% — a 9.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran war live: IRGC asserts strait control, US enforces blockade — Al Jazeera
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 77.8% to 67.5% — a 10.3-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran’s top negotiator declares victory in war against the US and Israel — Al Jazeera
Aug 17, 2026
Probability fell from 80.4% to 77.2% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran’s top negotiator declares victory in war against the US and Israel — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 79.1% to 81.4% — a 2.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 81.6% to 78.3% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US threatens ‘indefinite’ blockade against Iran: How long can it last? — Al Jazeera
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 84.5% to 78.8% — a 5.7-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran war live: US eyes indefinite Iran naval blockade — Al Jazeera
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 79.8% to 84.5% — a 4.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 78.4% to 82.7% — a 4.3-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran, US set new conditions during Hormuz talks: What does this mean? — Al Jazeera
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 20 tracked outcomes and $26.9M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026, is priced at 55.9%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice