Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 66.5% to 56.9% — a 9.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran war live: IRGC asserts strait control, US enforces blockade — Al Jazeera
US Announces End of Iran Blockade by Aug 31: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026 at 58.9%.
58.9%-2.9 pts 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $23.5M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | 58.9% | -2.9 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 37.5% | -2.5 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | 20.5% | -2.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | 13.5% | -1.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | 8.5% | -1.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | 3.5% | -1.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 14, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Context
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 77.8% to 67.5% — a 10.3-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran’s top negotiator declares victory in war against the US and Israel — Al Jazeera
Aug 17, 2026
Probability fell from 80.4% to 77.2% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran’s top negotiator declares victory in war against the US and Israel — Al Jazeera
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 79.1% to 81.4% — a 2.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 81.6% to 78.3% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US threatens ‘indefinite’ blockade against Iran: How long can it last? — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 84.5% to 78.8% — a 5.7-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran war live: US eyes indefinite Iran naval blockade — Al Jazeera
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 79.8% to 84.5% — a 4.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 78.4% to 82.7% — a 4.3-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran, US set new conditions during Hormuz talks: What does this mean? — Al Jazeera
Aug 11, 2026
Probability fell from 84.3% to 78.4% — a 5.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability rose from 78.3% to 82.0% — a 3.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran war live: Tehran demands end to US blockade to reopen Strait of Hormuz — Al Jazeera
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 20 tracked outcomes and $23.5M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026, is priced at 58.9%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice