Jul 30, 2026
Resolved: US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31 — YES. A week before, markets priced it at 23%.
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations: Result & Final Odds
Prediction markets have settled US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31Resolved — markets priced this at 100% a week before
Updated · Volume $5.6M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | 100.0% | — |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31? | 100.0% | — |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15? | 100.0% | — |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24? | 0.0% | — |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 19? | 0.0% | — |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 66.5% to 100.0% — a 33.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Why has the US halted its bombing of Iran? — Al Jazeera
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 57.5% to 100.0% — a 42.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Why has the US halted its bombing of Iran? — Al Jazeera
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 100.0% — a 62.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Why has the US halted its bombing of Iran? — Al Jazeera
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 83.0% to 76.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Why has the US halted its bombing of Iran? — Al Jazeera
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice