Sep 17, 2026
Probability fell from 2.1% to 0.9% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
US Withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that the US announces a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base at 1.4%, making it effectively ruled out before the deadline.
1.4%+0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $194.4K
The lone outcome—an announced withdrawal—is a long shot, leaving no plausible alternative to No.
Context
Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 2.3% to 0.9% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 3.7% — a 1.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 5.7% to 4.0% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 6.0% to 3.3% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 2.3% to 6.1% — a 3.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 5.8% to 4.0% — a 1.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 3.1% to 6.5% — a 3.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 3.2% to 6.6% — a 3.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 15.4% to 4.7% — a 10.8-point move over the past day.
The probability has remained firmly in remote territory since the market opened. It has traded between 0.7% and 6.2%,
This market resolves to Yes only if an official, public announcement of a complete withdrawal is made by an authorized US representative before Oct 1, 2026. The announcement must be declarative and unambiguous—an end to military operations at the base or withdrawal of all troops from Qatar would qualify, but vague statements about regional drawdowns do not. Once a qualifying announcement occurs, the market resolves Yes even if later reversed or never carried out. Absent such an announcement, the market will resolve No. The resolution source is official information from Donald Trump, the US government, or the US military. There are no other scheduled events that determine the outcome.
FAQ
What counts as an official withdrawal announcement?
A public, declarative statement by an authorized US official—such as the president, the government, or military—that unambiguously communicates a complete withdrawal from the base. Informal or anonymous comments do not count.
Does the withdrawal actually have to happen?
No. The market resolves Yes when a qualifying announcement is made, regardless of whether the withdrawal is later reversed or never implemented.
Would a leaked report trigger resolution?
No. Leaked, unattributed, or unconfirmed reports are not considered official announcements. Only statements through official channels count.
What if the announcement is made accidentally or informally?
Statements made casually or in a context not meant for official communication do not qualify. It must be a formal, deliberate announcement.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice