Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
US MOU Withdrawal by August 31: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31 at 0.1%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $1.7M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 2, 2026
Probability fell from 17.5% to 6.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 14.5% to 27.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 26, 2026
Probability fell from 24.0% to 13.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability fell from 25.0% to 18.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 45.5% to 27.0% — a 18.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 36.5% to 45.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice