US Withdrawal from Iran MOU Talks: Live Probability

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that ended immediate hostilities and set a 60-day timeline for negotiating a final agreement. This prediction market tracks whether the US government—through an official channel and authorised representative—will publicly announce a definitive termination of its participation in those negotiations by a given date. The market’s headline contract, covering any withdrawal announcement through August 31, trades at 38.0%, reflecting a finely balanced assessment. The contract has ranged between 29.0% and 54.0%. Total trading volume stands at $693.3K. Shorter timeframes attract far less confidence. The July 31 deadline is priced at 16.5%, an unlikely outcome. The July 24 deadline sits at a similarly unlikely 15.0%. Markets appear to expect that any US decision to exit the talks, if it materialises, is more likely late in the 60‑day window. Other even earlier dates draw only negligible attention. For a ‘Yes’ resolution, the announcement must be clear and unambiguous: a declarative statement of the United States’ present withdrawal from the overall negotiation process. Temporary suspensions, pauses, or walkouts from specific meetings do not qualify unless they explicitly end participation. Conditional withdrawals or threats contingent on future events also fall short. The communication must come through official channels from an authorised individual. Leaked, anonymous, or third‑party reports do not count. Once a qualifying announcement occurs, the market resolves ‘Yes’ regardless of any later reversal.