Sep 13, 2026
Probability rose from 3.8% to 6.7% — a 2.9-point move over the past day.
Will the US Charge Fees for Hormuz Transit? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets see a 5.1% chance that the US government actually collects a fee for transiting or protecting the Strait of Hormuz by Jan 1, 2027. The “Yes” scenario is unlikely — the market requires at least one payment, not just a programme announcement.
5.1%-1.7 pts 24h
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $983.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? | 5.1% | -1.7 |
| US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The “Yes” outcome is the only scenario with meaningful probability, though it remains unlikely; the remaining outcomes are all long shots.
Context
Sep 12, 2026
Probability rose from 3.5% to 6.1% — a 2.6-point move over the past day.
TRAJECTORY The probability of a fee collection has moved within a, settling recently at 5.1%. The line has been flat for weeks, reflecting a stable but low conviction that any payment will materialise. RESOLUTION & RULES The market resolves “Yes” if the US government—or an agent or contractor collecting on its behalf—actually receives a payment from any entity as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. The payment can be monetary or in-kind, such as a share of cargo or oil. Announcing a fee programme, signing an executive order, or setting up a collection mechanism is not enough; the money must change hands. Payments collected by Iran or any party on its own behalf do not count, nor do pre‑existing customs duties, tariffs, or standard port charges unless newly imposed for Hormuz transit. The resolution will rely on official US government statements and credible news reporting. WHAT COULD SHIFT THE NUMBER The deadline—Jan 1, 2027—is the main formal constraint: if no payment occurs by then, the market resolves “No”. Between now and then, any credible report that a vessel or government is preparing to pay could lift the probability, while explicit denials by major shipping lines or foreign governments would likely push it lower. The resolution source—official US announcements confirmed by a consensus of credible media—sets an evidentiary bar that traders watch closely.
FAQ
What exactly counts as a payment under these rules?
Any amount of money or in‑kind compensation—such as a share of cargo or oil—that is actually received by the US government, its agent, or an intermediary. It must be tied to Hormuz transit or protection, not a pre‑existing tariff or port charge.
Could a foreign government pay on behalf of a shipping company?
Yes. The rules explicitly allow payments from a foreign government or any other relevant entity.
Why doesn’t announcing a fee programme settle the market?
The market requires proof of collection. An executive order, regulation, or press release alone is insufficient; the money must be received by the deadline.
What if Iran charges fees for the same transit?
Payments collected by Iran or any party acting on its own behalf do not count. Only US‑imposed fees are relevant.
How is the resolution determined?
The market settles based on official US government announcements and a consensus of credible reporting. If there is no evidence of a payment by the deadline, it resolves “No”.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice