Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 42.0% to 34.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
U.S. Embassy in Damascus Reopening by 2026: Market Odds
Prediction markets give a 24.5% chance to the U.S. embassy in Damascus, shuttered in 2012, announcing its reopening by end-2026.
24.5%+0.5 pts 24h
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $458.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026? | 24.5% | +0.5 |
| U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2025? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The main outcome—an embassy reopening by end-2026—is priced as a substantial minority view; the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 32.0% to 42.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 46.5% to 32.5% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 32.5% to 46.5% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability fell from 44.0% to 32.0% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: ‘Opening a new chapter’: Syria reopens embassy in Libya after talks — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 41.5% to 37.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 41.5% to 37.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 39.0% to 41.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 51.0% to 39.0% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 29.0% to 39.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
The probability has ranged from 23.5% to 51.5% over the observed period. It currently stands at 24.5%. The U.S. suspended its Damascus embassy operations on February 6, 2012, and the Czech Republic now serves as protecting power. This market will resolve to Yes if the U.S. government announces a reopening of the embassy by 11:59 PM ET on Jan 1, 2027, or if credible reporting confirms such a reopening by that time. The announcement must be an unambiguous commitment to reopen; general diplomatic comments do not suffice. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. or Syrian governments, or a consensus of credible reporting. The key formal condition is the resolution deadline, Jan 1, 2027. Any official announcement or credible report of reopening plans could shift the probability. Without such news, the market will gradually decay toward zero as the deadline approaches.
FAQ
When does the market resolve?
It resolves based on whether an announcement is made by the deadline, Jan 1, 2027.
What type of announcement qualifies?
Only an unambiguous commitment to reopen the embassy counts. Exploratory or conditional statements do not.
Does the embassy actually have to open by the deadline?
No. An announcement of a future reopening qualifies even if the physical opening occurs later.
How is the announcement verified?
Official statements from the U.S. or Syrian governments, or a consensus of credible media reports, serve as the resolution source.
What if there's no announcement?
The market will resolve to No.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice