Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 5.0% to 6.8% — a 1.8-point move over the past day.
U.S. Evacuates Beirut Embassy: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of a U.S. evacuation of the Beirut embassy by December 31 at 6.6%, making it unlikely. The contract settles based on whether such an announcement occurs by June 30, 2026.
6.6%+0.3 pts 24h
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?
Updated · Volume $119.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31? | 6.6% | +0.3 |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome, U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?, dominates the market’s attention; all other scenarios are negligible long shots.
Context
Aug 3, 2026
Probability fell from 19.7% to 9.7% — a 10.1-point move over the past day.
The headline probability currently sits at 6.6%. Since creation, it has ranged from 4.3% to 13.7%. It shifted by +0.3 pts over the last day. The market resolves to "Yes" if, by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of its embassy in Beirut or a full evacuation is otherwise confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. An announcement alone is enough, even if no physical evacuation occurs by the deadline. Partial evacuations—where some staff are intended to remain—do not trigger a "Yes". The approaching resolution date of Jan 1, 2027 is the main formal deadline. Any official U.S. statement or credible reporting consensus confirming an evacuation would settle the contract; nothing short of that alters the outcome under the rules.
FAQ
What counts as a full evacuation?
The market requires that no U.S. diplomatic staff are intended to remain at the embassy. An announcement of a partial drawdown, or a temporary closure for renovations, does not qualify.
Does the evacuation need to be completed by the deadline?
No. An official announcement of a full evacuation before Jan 1, 2027 settles the market to 'Yes', even if the physical relocation happens later.
What if the embassy is evacuated but never formally announced?
A 'Yes' resolution can still occur if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the evacuation, as specified in the market’s resolution source.
Who determines the outcome?
The resolution source is official U.S. government statements or a consensus of credible reporting.
Can a false alarm or rumor move the market?
Only if it meets the threshold of an official announcement or a consensus of credible reporting would it cause a 'Yes' resolution; unverified reports alone are not enough.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice