Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 2.1% to 0.9% — a 1.3-point move over the past day.
US-Iran 60 Day Negotiation Extension: Live Odds
Prediction markets have settled US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended at 0.1%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extendedEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $2.9M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
Context
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 11.8% to 2.4% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran war live: Trump rejects MoU extension as US claims control of Hormuz — Al Jazeera
Aug 17, 2026
Probability fell from 8.5% to 3.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US-Iran MoU is set to expire: What to know — Al Jazeera
Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 19.0% to 8.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 23.5% to 19.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US threatens ‘indefinite’ blockade against Iran: How long can it last? — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 24.5% to 16.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US-Iran talks in deadlock – what’s the latest? — Al Jazeera
Aug 13, 2026
Probability fell from 39.5% to 24.5% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 26.5% to 39.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran, US set new conditions during Hormuz talks: What does this mean? — Al Jazeera
Aug 10, 2026
Probability fell from 57.5% to 29.5% — a 28.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran issues new demands as Pezeshkian seeks deal — Al Jazeera
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 65.5% to 42.0% — a 23.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran issues new demands as Pezeshkian seeks deal — Al Jazeera
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice