US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22 at 48.0%.
48.0%+4.5 pts 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?
Updated · Volume $15.3M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16? | 100.0% | +0.8 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17? | 98.3% | +0.9 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | 96.6% | +0.4 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | 91.5% | 0.0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | 89.0% | +1.0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | 83.5% | 0.0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 81.5% | 0.0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | 65.5% | +0.5 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | 55.5% | +3.0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? | 48.0% | +4.5 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 39.5% | +1.0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 32.5% | +1.0 |
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 20 tracked outcomes and $15.3M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22, is priced at 48.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice