Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 18.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US-Iran talks in deadlock – what’s the latest? — Al Jazeera
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by {{end_date}}: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026 at 10.5%.
10.5%0.0 pts 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $16.9M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | 10.5% | 0.0 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | 6.0% | -1.0 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | 2.5% | -0.2 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | 0.9% | -0.3 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 13, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 18.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US-Iran talks in deadlock – what’s the latest? — Al Jazeera
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 9 tracked outcomes and $16.9M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026, is priced at 10.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice