Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 5.9% to 3.5% — a 2.4-point move over the past day.
U.S. Nuclear Test by December 2026: Current Odds
Prediction markets currently price the chance of a U.S. nuclear test by December 2026 at 5.1%, an outcome they deem unlikely. The market defines a test as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction, with resolution based on a broad consensus of credible reporting.
5.1%+0.3 pts 24h
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
Updated · Volume $796.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? | 5.1% | +0.3 |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? | 0.5% | -0.4 |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market considers a U.S. nuclear test unlikely, while alternative scenarios represent a negligible tail of remote possibilities.
Context
Aug 6, 2026
Probability fell from 6.5% to 4.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 6.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 7.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
TRAJECTORY: Headline odds stand at 5.1%. RESOLUTION & RULES: The market resolves to 'Yes' if the United States conducts an intentional non-combat detonation of a device that produces a nuclear chain reaction from fission or fusion, regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (such as dirty bombs), or actions by third parties do not qualify. Unclaimed tests can still trigger a 'Yes' resolution if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the detonation to the U.S., a structure explicitly modeled on the 1979 Vela Incident. The resolution source is a broad consensus of credible reporting. WHAT WOULD MOVE THE NUMBER: The market's resolution depends entirely on whether a qualifying event occurs before Jan 1, 2027. The resolution source—a broad consensus of credible reporting—is the definitive arbiter. Any event that meets the definition and is so reported will settle the market to 'Yes'. Trading volume stands at $796.6K.
FAQ
What qualifies as a nuclear test for this market?
An intentional non-combat detonation by the U.S. that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Do accidents or dirty bombs count?
No. Accidents and radiological dispersal devices (bombs using conventional explosives to spread radioactive material) are explicitly excluded.
What if a test is not officially claimed by the U.S.?
It can still count if credible reporting attributes it to the U.S., analogous to the 1979 Vela Incident.
How is the outcome determined?
The market resolves based on a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice