U.S. Recognizes Machado as Leader of Venezuela: Odds
Prediction markets give a 2.9% chance that the Trump administration formally recognises María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader before 2027, a scenario traders consider a long shot.
Updated · Volume $179.3K
The Yes outcome trades at 2.9%, making the recognition an a long shot scenario.
Context
Currently, the market prices the chance of U.S. recognition at 2.9%. It moved 0.0 pts in the past day
The market resolves to Yes if the Trump administration issues a direct, unqualified statement officially recognising María Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela—such as head of state or president—by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Conditional or implied statements do not count. Resolution will rely on official U.S. government announcements and Donald Trump’s statements, supplemented by credible news reporting. The main factors are the resolution deadline of Jan 1, 2027 and any direct U.S. government statement. Because the statement must be unqualified, conditional remarks would not move the needle.
FAQ
What qualifies as U.S. recognition?
A direct and unqualified announcement by the Trump administration that María Corina Machado holds a leadership role, such as head of state or president.
How is 'leader of Venezuela' defined?
Roles that give her primary executive authority in Venezuela—head of state, president, or equivalent.
What if the statement is conditional or implied?
Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. Only a direct and unqualified announcement resolves the market to Yes.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves after the deadline of 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, or sooner if a qualifying statement is made before then.
What sources determine the resolution?
Primarily official information from the U.S. government and Donald Trump. A consensus of credible reporting is used as a supplementary source.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice