Sep 15, 2026
Probability rose from 15.5% to 29.0% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
US Reissues Iran Oil Sanction Relief: Market Odds
Markets price a 19.5% chance that the US will reissue Iran oil sanction relief by Oct 1, 2026, following the revocation of General License X on July 7, 2026.
19.5%+6.0 pts 24h
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?
Updated · Volume $354.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31? | 19.5% | +6.0 |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30? | 5.5% | +1.0 |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline August 31 deadline is the dominant scenario, while the earlier July 31 window remains unlikely.
Context
Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 48.5% to 17.5% — a 31.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 27.5% to 12.5% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 29.0% to 18.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 45.5% to 26.0% — a 19.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 3.5% to 8.2% — a 4.7-point move over the past day.
Around this time: How US sanctions on Iran ripple through global markets and consumers — Al Jazeera
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Oil flows nearly tripled before US-Iran MoU expired, analysis shows — Al Jazeera
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 17.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability fell from 23.0% to 17.0% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability fell from 38.0% to 22.5% — a 15.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran, US set new conditions during Hormuz talks: What does this mean? — Al Jazeera
The probability is 19.5%, a +6.0 pts move over the last day. It has ranged from 12.0% to 52.5% during this period. The market resolves to “Yes” if the US federal government issues any waiver, license, or equivalent action that lifts sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical, or petroleum products by the deadline of Oct 1, 2026. Qualifying actions include partial or full relief, temporary suspensions, and relief for either primary or secondary sanctions. A re-issuance of the original waiver also qualifies. The continued sale of oil during the wind-down period of the July 7 revocation order does not count, nor do mere extensions of that period. Once a qualifying action is taken, the market resolves immediately to “Yes”, regardless of any future reversal. The market’s assessment is driven by the approach of the Oct 1, 2026 deadline and by any official communication from the US government that signals a potential re-issuance. No other data sources are considered for resolution.
FAQ
What qualifies as a re-issuance of sanctions relief?
Any US federal government action—waiver, license, or equivalent—that lifts, suspends, or removes sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemicals, or petroleum products, in whole or in part, temporarily or permanently.
Does partial relief count?
Yes, actions that provide even partial relief qualify.
What if a relief measure is later revoked?
The market resolves to “Yes” once a qualifying action occurs, regardless of subsequent revocation.
Do wind-down period extensions count?
No, mere extensions of the wind-down period without a new sanctions-relief action do not qualify.
How is the resolution verified?
The primary source is official information from the United States federal government.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice