US Strike on Colombia: Odds & Probability

This prediction market tracks whether the US launches a qualifying strike on Colombian soil by a given deadline. To count, the attack must involve aerial bombs, drones, or missiles—including cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as FPV and ATGM strikes—physically impacting land territory. Interceptions, surface-to-air strikes, artillery fire, small arms, naval shelling, and cyberattacks are explicitly excluded. A strike claimed by Donald Trump or the US government automatically qualifies. Resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting, and the market closes two days after the final deadline of January 31, 2026. Currently, the market assigns a 15.5% probability to a strike occurring by December 31. That figure represents moderate but far-from-certain odds. The December target captures the final months of the year, and the 15.5% suggests traders see a non-negligible but minority chance of an event. In contrast, the January 31 and March 31 contracts sit at 0.0%. Whether this reflects a complete absence of bets, a market consensus that no strike will occur after year-end, or simply thin liquidity, the result is the same: no probability is assigned to a later event. Total market volume exceeds $2.1 million, a level that implies genuine interest rather than a handful of punters. The spread of outcomes—a lone non-zero probability followed by zeroes—paints a picture of a window that, if it opens at all, shuts abruptly after December. The market’s structure incentivises early resolution; a confirmed strike before the final deadline ends trading immediately. Without one, the market will simply expire at the end of January 2026, settling at No.