Aug 13, 2026
Probability fell from 41.5% to 30.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
US Strike on Colombia: Odds & Probability
Markets price a US strike on Colombia at 34.5%, a substantial minority view. Such an event would require US-launched missiles or drones to hit Colombian territory before the deadline.
34.5%-1.0 pts 24h
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
Updated · Volume $2.2M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | 34.5% | -1.0 |
| US strike on Colombia by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US strike on Colombia by January 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
A US strike on Colombia by December 31 remains a substantial minority view; all other outcomes are long shots.
Context
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 25.5% to 41.5% — a 16.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 11, 2026
Probability fell from 37.0% to 26.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 30.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 21.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 17.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 19.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 16.0% to 21.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 16.0% to 21.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
The probability of a US strike on Colombia currently stands at 34.5% after ranging between 19.5% and 48.0% over the period tracked, with a -1.0 pts move over the last day. This market resolves to Yes if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Colombian soil is announced or credibly reported before the end date. A qualifying strike involves aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by any US government operatives that physically impact Colombian territory—excluding territorial seas. Intercepted missiles and surface-to-air strikes do not count, nor do artillery, small arms, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks. Any strike claimed by President Trump or the US government qualifies. The primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, and the market remains open until two days after the resolution time; if the date of a strike cannot be confirmed by then, it settles as No. The occurrence of a qualifying strike on Colombian soil by Jan 31, 2026 is the defining condition for this market. Without such an event, the market resolves to No.
FAQ
What type of military action counts as a qualifying strike?
Only US-launched drone, missile, or air strikes that physically impact Colombian territory—including rivers, lakes, and ports but not the territorial sea—count. Ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, and intercepted missiles do not qualify.
Do strikes claimed by the US government automatically resolve the market to Yes?
Any strike claimed by President Trump or the US government during the market’s timeframe qualifies, provided it meets the definition. However, the final resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting.
What if a missile is intercepted or lands in the sea?
Intercepted missiles and surface-to-air strikes are insufficient for a Yes resolution, even if debris falls on land. Strikes must impact terrestrial Colombian territory; the territorial sea is excluded.
How is the resolution date determined if a strike occurs near the deadline?
The market remains open for two days after the resolution time. If the date of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by then, the market resolves to No.
Who decides whether reports are credible?
Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If no such consensus exists or the date of the strike is ambiguous, the market defaults to No.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice