Aug 11, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 19.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
US Military Action Against Cuba: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of a US drone, missile, or air strike on Cuban territory by Jan 1, 2027 at 14.5%, a level that makes the event unlikely. A qualifying strike must physically impact ground territory and be confirmed by credible reporting, with interception or surface-to-air fire explicitly excluded from settlement.
14.5%0.0 pts 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Updated · Volume $7.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | 14.5% | 0.0 |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US strike on Cuba by January 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The 'Yes' scenario remains the focal point of market attention, while the other possible resolution categories all trade as long shots.
Context
Aug 10, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 18.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
The probability of a strike has ranged from 14.5% to 25.5% over the life of the contract, with the latest reading of 14.5% moving 0.0 pts over the past day and. For a 'Yes' resolution, a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike—including aerial bombs, cruise or ballistic missiles, and FPV or ATGM strikes—must physically impact Cuban terrestrial territory (ports and rivers included, territorial sea excluded) and be announced or credibly reported. Intercepted munitions and surface-to-air missiles do not qualify. Artillery, small arms, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks are not sufficient. The strike must occur by Jan 1, 2027 ET, and if the date of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by consensus reporting within two days of that deadline, the market resolves to 'No'. The contract’s resolution date, Jan 1, 2027 ET, is the hard deadline; a strike must be confirmed by that deadline to count. The primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting. Any claim by Donald Trump or the U.S. government that a qualifying strike took place would be accepted, provided the physical-impact criteria are met.
FAQ
What counts as a qualifying US strike?
Any US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike that physically impacts Cuban ground territory (including ports and rivers) and is announced or credibly reported.
Do intercepted missiles or surface-to-air fire count?
No, the rules explicitly exclude intercepted munitions and surface-to-air missiles, even if they land on territory or cause damage.
What actions are explicitly excluded?
Artillery fire, small arms, ground incursions, naval shelling, and cyberattacks do not qualify. Only aerial bombs, drones, or missiles count.
How is the strike confirmed?
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. A claim by Donald Trump or the U.S. government is sufficient if it describes a qualifying strike.
What if a strike is discovered after the deadline?
The market sets a cutoff: a strike must be confirmed within two days of the resolution date (Jan 1, 2027 ET). If the date cannot be confirmed by that time, the market resolves to 'No'.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice