US x China Tariff Agreement by Dec 31: Odds & Probability
Markets give a 92.5% probability that the US and China will reach a mutual tariff deal by Jan 1, 2027, making it the clear expectation.
Updated · Volume $265.5K
An agreement is the clear expectation, with the alternative priced as a long shot.
Context
The contract has traded in a relatively narrow range, with the price shifting from 84.7% to 92.5% over the period. In the short term, it gained +1.2 pts in the past day, reflecting a stable assessment. For a 'Yes' resolution, the market requires a publicly announced mutual tariff agreement between the US and China. This includes agreements that are confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even without a formal joint statement. Unilateral steps or informal announcements do not qualify. If such an agreement materialises before the deadline, the market resolves early at 'Yes'; otherwise it settles as 'No'. Any credible report of progress toward a mutual tariff deal—or a breakdown in talks—could shift the probability. The resolution deadline of Jan 1, 2027 provides a hard backstop. The primary resolution sources are official announcements from both governments or a consensus of credible reporting.
FAQ
What exactly counts as a tariff agreement?
The market requires a publicly announced mutual agreement. It could be a joint announcement from the US and China, or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting that both sides have agreed to tariff changes.
Does a unilateral tariff reduction by one country count?
No. The agreement must be mutual. Both countries must either announce it jointly or be reported to have reached a deal by credible sources.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves as soon as an agreement is publicly confirmed, regardless of when it takes effect. If no agreement is reached before the deadline, it resolves to 'No'.
What if the agreement also includes other countries?
The market still resolves to 'Yes' as long as the US and China are parties to the agreement, even if other nations are involved.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice