Aug 12, 2026
Resolved: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31 — YES. A week before, markets priced it at 85%.
US-Iran Effective Ceasefire: Result & Final Odds
Prediction markets have settled US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31Resolved
Updated · Volume $17.2M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | 100.0% | — |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | 100.0% | — |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | 100.0% | — |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | 0.0% | — |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 99.6% — a 5.1-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran, US set new conditions during Hormuz talks: What does this mean? — Al Jazeera
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 97.9% — a 4.3-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran, US set new conditions during Hormuz talks: What does this mean? — Al Jazeera
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 97.3% — a 2.8-point move over the past day.
Around this time: War on Iran: Phase II: Day 30 — Al Jazeera
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 96.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: War on Iran: Phase II: Day 30 — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 80.0% to 90.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Will the US-Iran war and Hormuz deadlock last for months? — Al Jazeera
Aug 6, 2026
Probability fell from 92.0% to 81.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Will the US-Iran war and Hormuz deadlock last for months? — Al Jazeera
Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 76.5% to 87.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US and Qatar report progress on Iran ceasefire and reopening Hormuz strait — The Guardian
Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 75.0% to 81.0% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability rose from 47.5% to 72.0% — a 24.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Why has Trump halted Iran attacks, and what is the deal he is hinting at? — Al Jazeera
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice